KSLC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

94%

93%

92%

64%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 80.0¢Risks 79.95u

AIFSNO 20.1¢Risks 20.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +20.05u · AIFS −20.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T15:41:36+00:00	70.7%	92.4%	93.7%	88.9%	94.0%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	70.7%	92.4%	93.7%	88.9%	94.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	70.7%	92.4%	88.1%	88.9%	94.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	70.7%	92.4%	88.1%	88.9%	94.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	70.7%	92.4%	88.1%	88.9%	94.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	70.7%	92.4%	88.1%	88.9%	94.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	63.6%	92.4%	88.1%	42.1%	96.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	63.6%	92.4%	88.1%	42.1%	96.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	63.6%	92.4%	88.1%	42.1%	96.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	63.6%	92.4%	88.1%	42.1%	96.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	63.6%	92.4%	60.6%	42.1%	96.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	63.6%	92.4%	60.6%	42.1%	96.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	63.6%	92.4%	60.6%	42.1%	96.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	50.9%	92.4%	60.6%	42.1%	96.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	50.9%	92.4%	60.6%	42.1%	96.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	50.9%	92.4%	60.6%	42.1%	96.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	50.9%	92.4%	60.6%	42.1%	96.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:22+00:00	50.9%	92.4%	60.6%	42.1%	96.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	50.9%	92.4%	71.3%	42.1%	96.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	50.9%	92.4%	71.3%	42.1%	96.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	50.9%	92.4%	71.3%	42.1%	96.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00	63.7%	92.4%	71.3%	93.1%	96.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	63.7%	92.4%	71.3%	93.1%	96.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	63.7%	92.4%	71.3%	93.1%	96.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	63.7%	92.4%	71.3%	93.1%	96.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	63.7%	92.4%	71.3%	93.1%	96.2%
2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00	63.7%	91.7%	93.5%	93.1%	96.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	96%	74.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	94%	72.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	93%	74.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	92%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	69.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	68.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗