KSLC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

94%

93%

92%

64%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 80.0¢Risks 79.95u

AIFSNO 20.1¢Risks 20.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +20.05u · AIFS −20.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	56.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	63.0%	—	10.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	59.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	55.8%	—	21.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	2.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	0.5%	0.6%	—	14.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	2.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	4.4%	0.9%	1.3%	16.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	9.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	67.0%	88.3%	15.6%	27.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	64.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	66.3%	4.1%	12.5%	23.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	56.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	75.2%	92.2%	86.0%	72.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	93.5%	—	59.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	93.9%	93.4%	29.3%	67.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	56.0%	88.5%	—	73.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	90.3%	93.5%	40.5%	54.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	92.5%	96.4%	—	65.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	95.4%	85.1%	84.5%	45.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	96.6%	92.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	94.1%	90.6%	69.6%	71.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	91.2%	81.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	96%	74.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	94%	72.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	93%	74.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	92%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	69.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	68.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗