KSLC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 53°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

91%

89%

88%

75%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 83.5¢Risks 41.75u

WN2NO 16.5¢Risks 8.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +8.25u · WN2 −8.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00	96.1%	75.4%	86.1%	92.9%	44.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	96.1%	75.4%	86.1%	92.9%	44.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	96.1%	75.4%	86.1%	92.9%	44.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	96.1%	75.4%	86.1%	92.9%	44.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	96.1%	75.4%	86.1%	92.9%	44.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	96.1%	90.2%	95.0%	92.9%	44.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	96.1%	90.2%	95.0%	92.9%	44.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	96.1%	90.2%	95.0%	92.9%	44.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00	89.8%	90.2%	95.0%	92.9%	44.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	89.8%	90.2%	95.0%	93.0%	44.8%
2026-10-17T15:25:12+00:00	89.8%	91.1%	95.0%	93.0%	44.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	89.8%	91.1%	95.0%	93.0%	44.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	89.8%	91.1%	95.0%	93.0%	44.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	89.8%	91.1%	85.0%	93.0%	44.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	89.8%	91.1%	85.0%	93.0%	44.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	89.8%	91.1%	85.0%	93.0%	44.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	86.3%	91.1%	85.0%	92.3%	87.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	86.3%	91.1%	85.0%	92.3%	87.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	86.3%	91.1%	85.0%	92.3%	87.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	86.3%	91.1%	85.0%	92.3%	87.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	86.3%	91.1%	85.0%	92.3%	87.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	86.3%	91.1%	74.7%	92.3%	87.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	86.3%	91.1%	74.7%	92.3%	87.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	86.3%	91.1%	74.7%	92.3%	87.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	88.8%	91.1%	74.7%	92.3%	87.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	88.8%	91.1%	74.7%	92.3%	87.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	88.8%	91.1%	74.7%	92.3%	87.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	92%	61.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	91%	61.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	59.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	88%	64.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	55.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	53.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261024-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 53°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗