KSLC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 53°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

91%

89%

88%

75%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 83.5¢Risks 41.75u

WN2NO 16.5¢Risks 8.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +8.25u · WN2 −8.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	78.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.7%	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	25.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	77.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	63.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	93.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	15.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	—	—	77.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	71.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	42.9%	—	81.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	83.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	15.5%	22.8%	—	90.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	88.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	88.5%	67.7%	24.1%	85.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	57.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	95.4%	81.1%	55.8%	90.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	83.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	94.4%	65.6%	85.4%	80.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	53.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	55.6%	52.4%	33.0%	68.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	82.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	92%	61.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	91%	61.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	59.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	88%	64.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	55.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	53.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261024-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 53°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗