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KSLC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
92%
AIFS
80%
EPS
68%
HRES
47%
WN2
29%
Consensus
62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 60.4¢Risks 60.40u
VS
WN2NO 39.6¢Risks 39.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +39.60u · WN2 −39.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-18T15:41:36+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T15:41:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-18T15:41:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.0% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.0% · 2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.0% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.0% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.0% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.0% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.0% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.0% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.9% · 2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.9% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.9% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.9% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.9% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.9% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.9% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00IFS HRES: 85.2% · 2026-10-18T15:41:36+00:00IFS HRES: 85.2% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00IFS HRES: 85.2% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00IFS HRES: 85.2% · 2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00IFS HRES: 85.2% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00IFS HRES: 85.2% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-18T15:41:36+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00ICON: 91.9% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00ICON: 91.9% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00ICON: 91.9% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00ICON: 91.9% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00ICON: 91.9% · 2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00ICON: 91.9% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00ICON: 91.9% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00ICON: 91.9% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00ICON: 91.9% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00ICON: 91.9% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00ICON: 91.9% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:0010-18 15:4110-18 21:4310-19 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T15:41:36+00:0086.2%68.1%82.7%85.2%93.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:0086.2%68.1%82.7%85.2%93.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:0086.2%68.1%56.0%85.2%93.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:0086.2%68.1%56.0%85.2%93.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:0086.2%68.1%56.0%85.2%93.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:0086.2%68.1%56.0%85.2%93.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:0079.7%68.1%56.0%47.0%91.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:0079.7%68.1%56.0%47.0%91.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:0079.7%68.1%56.0%47.0%91.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:0079.7%68.1%56.0%47.0%91.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:0079.7%68.1%28.9%47.0%91.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:0079.7%68.1%28.9%47.0%91.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:0079.7%68.1%28.9%47.0%91.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:0079.7%68.1%28.9%47.0%91.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:0079.7%68.1%28.9%47.0%91.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:0079.7%68.1%28.9%47.0%91.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:0079.7%68.1%28.9%47.0%91.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON92%64.5°F7.2°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
AIFS Single80%59.0°F5.4°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble68%57.2°F5.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend55%55.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%55.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 14:00Pending
IFS HRES47%54.0°F6.6°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 229%51.9°F4.7°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261024-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗