KSLC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

80%

68%

47%

29%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 60.4¢Risks 60.40u

WN2NO 39.6¢Risks 39.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +39.60u · WN2 −39.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	17.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	89.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	8.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	59.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	30.6%	—	71.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	74.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	8.8%	13.9%	—	83.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	79.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	80.1%	54.2%	14.5%	76.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	42.9%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	90.7%	69.6%	41.3%	82.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	71.9%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	88.6%	50.8%	74.9%	68.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	38.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	39.7%	36.7%	20.1%	53.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	70.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	92%	64.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	59.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	57.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	55.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	54.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	51.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261024-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗