KSLC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

89%

71%

70%

39%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 64.9¢Risks 64.90u

WN2NO 35.1¢Risks 35.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +35.10u · WN2 −35.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:00	97.6%	73.4%	76.2%	92.3%	52.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	97.6%	73.4%	76.2%	92.3%	52.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	97.6%	73.4%	76.2%	92.3%	52.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	97.6%	73.4%	76.2%	92.3%	52.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	97.6%	73.4%	76.2%	92.3%	52.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	97.6%	67.4%	78.3%	92.3%	52.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:00	97.6%	67.4%	78.3%	92.3%	52.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	97.6%	67.4%	78.3%	92.3%	52.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	84.3%	67.4%	78.3%	92.3%	51.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	84.3%	67.4%	78.3%	92.3%	51.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:37+00:00	84.3%	69.6%	78.3%	92.3%	51.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	84.3%	69.6%	78.3%	92.3%	51.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	84.3%	69.6%	50.8%	92.3%	51.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	84.3%	69.6%	50.8%	92.3%	51.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	84.3%	69.6%	50.8%	92.3%	51.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	84.3%	69.6%	50.8%	92.3%	51.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	83.5%	69.6%	50.8%	90.6%	88.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	83.5%	69.6%	50.8%	90.6%	88.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	83.5%	69.6%	50.8%	90.6%	88.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	83.5%	69.6%	50.8%	90.6%	88.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	83.5%	69.6%	39.2%	90.6%	88.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	83.5%	69.6%	39.2%	90.6%	88.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	83.5%	69.6%	39.2%	90.6%	88.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	71.1%	69.6%	39.2%	90.6%	88.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	71.1%	69.6%	39.2%	90.6%	88.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	71.1%	69.6%	39.2%	90.6%	88.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	71.1%	69.6%	39.2%	90.6%	88.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	91%	67.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	89%	70.7°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	61.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	61.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	59.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	57.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261025-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗