KSLC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

89%

71%

70%

39%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 64.9¢Risks 64.90u

WN2NO 35.1¢Risks 35.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +35.10u · WN2 −35.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	14.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	59.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	21.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	18.5%	—	75.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	82.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	48.7%	—	78.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	36.3%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	23.8%	61.3%	—	86.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	75.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	91.0%	42.3%	13.7%	87.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	59.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	74.0%	50.0%	29.1%	76.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	47.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	91%	67.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	89%	70.7°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	61.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	61.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	59.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	57.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261025-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗