KSLC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 11.1¢Risks 5.53u

EPSNO 88.9¢Risks 44.47u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.47u · EPS −44.47u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:45+00:00	39.0%	1.9%	4.8%	27.8%	10.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	39.0%	1.9%	4.8%	27.8%	10.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	39.0%	1.9%	4.8%	27.8%	10.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	39.0%	1.9%	4.8%	27.8%	10.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	39.0%	1.9%	4.8%	27.8%	10.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	39.0%	5.0%	3.9%	27.8%	10.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:00	39.0%	5.0%	3.9%	27.8%	10.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	39.0%	5.0%	3.9%	27.8%	10.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	10.5%	5.0%	3.9%	27.8%	10.4%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	10.5%	5.0%	3.9%	27.8%	10.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:37+00:00	10.5%	5.0%	3.9%	27.8%	10.4%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	10.5%	5.0%	3.9%	27.8%	10.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	10.5%	5.0%	0.6%	27.8%	10.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	10.5%	5.0%	0.6%	27.8%	10.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	10.5%	5.0%	0.6%	27.8%	10.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	10.5%	5.0%	0.6%	27.8%	10.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	9.9%	5.0%	0.6%	24.3%	46.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	9.9%	5.0%	0.6%	24.3%	46.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	9.9%	5.0%	0.6%	24.3%	46.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	9.9%	5.0%	0.6%	24.3%	46.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	9.9%	5.0%	0.2%	24.3%	46.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	9.9%	5.0%	0.2%	24.3%	46.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	9.9%	5.0%	0.2%	24.3%	46.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	4.4%	5.0%	0.2%	24.3%	46.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	4.4%	5.0%	0.2%	24.3%	46.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	4.4%	5.0%	0.2%	24.3%	46.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	4.4%	5.0%	0.2%	24.3%	46.8%
2026-10-19T04:31:24+00:00	4.4%	5.0%	0.2%	24.3%	46.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	4.4%	5.0%	1.2%	24.3%	46.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	4.4%	5.0%	1.2%	24.3%	46.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	4.4%	5.0%	1.2%	24.3%	46.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00	8.6%	5.0%	1.2%	6.9%	20.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	8.6%	5.0%	1.2%	6.9%	20.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	8.6%	5.0%	1.2%	6.9%	20.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	8.6%	5.0%	1.2%	6.9%	20.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	8.6%	5.0%	1.2%	6.9%	20.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00	8.6%	1.2%	2.7%	6.9%	20.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	21%	65.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	64.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	61.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	61.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	62.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	58.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261025-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗