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KSLC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
21%
AIFS
9%
HRES
7%
WN2
3%
EPS
1%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 11.1¢Risks 5.53u
VS
EPSNO 88.9¢Risks 44.47u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.47u · EPS −44.47u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-10 12:0010-15 00:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:000.0%———0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:002.7%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:002.0%———5.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:001.3%————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.7%———4.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:005.8%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.4%———3.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.4%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:002.5%———1.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.0%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.1%———0.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.0%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.4%———0.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:006.9%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:004.9%———1.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:004.0%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.8%———1.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:001.1%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:001.2%———1.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:007.1%—0.2%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:005.4%———1.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:005.3%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:005.5%———4.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:007.6%—0.3%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:007.9%—0.2%—9.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:005.9%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%———8.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0013.4%—12.4%——
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:009.6%—1.6%—9.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0010.6%—0.6%——
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0017.6%0.2%2.8%—13.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:002.8%—6.0%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:002.4%17.1%0.7%0.0%12.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.7%—1.8%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:001.9%4.1%0.9%0.2%4.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00——0.6%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON21%65.7°F7.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single9%64.1°F5.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES7%61.7°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast5%62.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
National Blend3%61.0°F5.6°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 23%62.5°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble1%58.7°F5.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261025-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗