KSMF / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 16 · 06:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

83%

78%

62%

14%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.5¢Risks 55.45u

ICONNO 44.5¢Risks 44.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.55u · ICON −44.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T06:36:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-10T03:10:17+00:00	83.7%	79.8%	91.9%	77.3%	65.9%
2026-09-10T03:55:21+00:00	83.7%	79.8%	91.9%	77.3%	65.9%
2026-09-10T04:40:27+00:00	83.7%	79.8%	91.9%	77.3%	97.1%
2026-09-10T05:25:33+00:00	83.7%	79.8%	96.0%	77.3%	97.1%
2026-09-10T06:10:39+00:00	83.7%	79.8%	96.0%	77.3%	97.1%
2026-09-10T06:55:43+00:00	83.7%	79.8%	96.0%	77.3%	97.1%
2026-09-10T07:40:57+00:00	99.7%	79.8%	96.0%	95.7%	97.1%
2026-09-10T08:26:04+00:00	99.7%	79.8%	96.0%	95.7%	97.1%
2026-09-10T09:11:08+00:00	99.7%	79.8%	96.0%	95.7%	97.1%
2026-09-10T09:56:12+00:00	99.7%	79.8%	96.0%	95.7%	97.1%
2026-09-10T10:41:17+00:00	99.7%	79.8%	96.0%	95.7%	97.1%
2026-09-10T11:26:25+00:00	99.7%	80.3%	98.5%	95.7%	97.1%
2026-09-10T12:11:30+00:00	99.7%	80.3%	98.5%	95.7%	97.1%
2026-09-10T12:56:34+00:00	99.7%	80.3%	98.5%	95.7%	97.1%
2026-09-10T13:41:39+00:00	98.3%	80.3%	98.5%	95.7%	97.1%
2026-09-10T14:26:58+00:00	98.3%	80.1%	98.4%	95.7%	97.2%
2026-09-14T15:28:47+00:00	75.2%	94.0%	81.0%	69.3%	38.9%
2026-09-14T16:13:53+00:00	75.2%	94.0%	81.0%	69.3%	38.9%
2026-09-14T16:58:59+00:00	75.2%	94.0%	78.8%	69.3%	38.9%
2026-09-14T17:44:05+00:00	75.2%	94.0%	78.8%	69.3%	38.9%
2026-09-14T18:29:13+00:00	75.2%	94.0%	78.8%	69.3%	38.9%
2026-09-14T19:14:18+00:00	75.2%	94.0%	78.8%	69.3%	38.9%
2026-09-14T19:59:24+00:00	73.0%	94.0%	78.8%	63.2%	30.6%
2026-09-14T20:44:29+00:00	73.0%	94.0%	78.8%	63.2%	30.6%
2026-09-14T21:29:34+00:00	73.0%	94.0%	78.8%	63.2%	30.6%
2026-09-14T22:14:39+00:00	73.0%	94.0%	78.8%	63.2%	30.6%
2026-09-14T22:59:45+00:00	73.0%	94.0%	80.4%	63.2%	30.6%
2026-09-14T23:44:53+00:00	73.0%	93.9%	80.4%	63.2%	30.7%
2026-09-15T00:29:59+00:00	73.0%	93.9%	80.4%	63.2%	30.7%
2026-09-15T01:15:06+00:00	73.0%	93.9%	80.4%	63.2%	30.7%
2026-09-15T02:00:12+00:00	75.2%	93.9%	80.4%	63.2%	30.7%
2026-09-15T02:45:17+00:00	75.2%	93.9%	80.4%	63.2%	30.7%
2026-09-15T16:19:17+00:00	80.8%	96.6%	82.0%	57.4%	13.7%
2026-09-15T17:04:26+00:00	80.8%	96.6%	84.9%	57.4%	13.7%
2026-09-15T17:49:32+00:00	80.8%	96.6%	84.9%	57.4%	13.7%
2026-09-15T18:34:41+00:00	80.8%	96.6%	84.9%	57.4%	13.7%
2026-09-15T19:19:46+00:00	80.8%	96.6%	84.9%	57.4%	13.7%
2026-09-15T20:04:51+00:00	80.8%	96.6%	84.9%	57.4%	14.3%
2026-09-15T20:49:58+00:00	80.8%	96.6%	84.9%	57.4%	14.3%
2026-09-15T21:35:07+00:00	80.8%	96.6%	84.9%	57.4%	14.3%
2026-09-15T22:20:12+00:00	80.8%	96.6%	84.9%	57.4%	14.3%
2026-09-15T23:05:19+00:00	80.8%	96.6%	82.0%	61.5%	14.3%
2026-09-15T23:50:25+00:00	80.8%	96.6%	82.0%	61.5%	14.3%
2026-09-16T00:35:30+00:00	80.8%	96.6%	82.0%	61.5%	14.3%
2026-09-16T01:20:42+00:00	80.8%	96.6%	82.0%	61.5%	14.3%
2026-09-16T02:05:54+00:00	78.1%	96.6%	82.0%	61.5%	14.3%
2026-09-16T02:51:03+00:00	78.1%	96.6%	82.0%	61.5%	14.3%
2026-09-16T03:36:27+00:00	78.1%	96.6%	82.0%	61.5%	14.3%
2026-09-16T04:21:35+00:00	78.1%	96.6%	82.0%	61.5%	14.3%
2026-09-16T05:06:41+00:00	78.1%	96.6%	82.7%	61.5%	14.3%
2026-09-16T05:51:49+00:00	78.1%	96.6%	82.7%	61.5%	14.3%
2026-09-16T06:36:57+00:00	78.1%	96.6%	82.7%	61.5%	14.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	88.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-15 00:00	0.9332
WeatherNext 2	83%	84.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-15 18:00	0.6839
AIFS Single	78%	84.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-15 18:00	0.6100
IFS HRES	62%	82.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	0.3782
National Blend	58%	82.0°F	2.3°F	2026-09-16 00:00	0.3422
NWS forecast	57%	82.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-16 02:00	0.3260
ICON	14%	77.7°F	3.6°F	2026-09-15 12:00	0.0204

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20260916-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 10 · 03:10 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 82°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗