KSMF / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 16 · 06:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

83%

78%

62%

14%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.5¢Risks 55.45u

ICONNO 44.5¢Risks 44.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.55u · ICON −44.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	92.5%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	91.9%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	94.4%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	87.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	—	—	—	94.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	86.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	85.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	60.6%	—	—	86.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	79.8%	—	—	89.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	58.1%	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	87.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	80.6%	0.0%	96.4%	0.0%	—	83.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	97.4%	96.2%	95.2%	74.0%	—	87.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	90.0%	99.6%	88.6%	44.7%	87.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	96.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	96.6%	99.5%	91.3%	—	93.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	64.7%	98.5%	92.6%	95.5%	—	88.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	15.7%	96.6%	—	—	95.5%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	99.3%	99.7%	98.7%	—	95.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	96.9%	99.9%	—	—	91.9%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	99.6%	99.9%	96.4%	—	95.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	99.9%	99.9%	—	—	90.8%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	0.0%	75.3%	46.1%	—	76.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	58.9%	79.6%	—	—	71.8%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	28.5%	51.0%	60.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	35.5%	79.5%	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	44.5%	71.8%	20.6%	—	46.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.7%	37.8%	85.2%	0.0%	—	52.2%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	35.2%	74.0%	21.5%	57.0%	55.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	25.3%	69.6%	24.4%	—	44.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	21.7%	53.7%	37.7%	46.3%	47.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	17.4%	57.7%	33.7%	—	48.7%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	21.0%	46.0%	50.0%	43.3%	46.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	25.3%	48.6%	47.2%	—	48.6%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.2%	22.2%	61.4%	55.8%	54.3%	50.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	22.4%	64.8%	60.5%	—	45.5%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	19.2%	48.4%	56.3%	33.1%	48.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	18.1%	33.9%	40.2%	—	33.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	88.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-15 00:00	0.9332
WeatherNext 2	83%	84.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-15 18:00	0.6839
AIFS Single	78%	84.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-15 18:00	0.6100
IFS HRES	62%	82.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	0.3782
National Blend	58%	82.0°F	2.3°F	2026-09-16 00:00	0.3422
NWS forecast	57%	82.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-16 02:00	0.3260
ICON	14%	77.7°F	3.6°F	2026-09-15 12:00	0.0204

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20260916-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 10 · 03:10 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 82°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗