KSMF / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 16 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

55%

49%

47%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.2¢Risks 41.25u

ICONNO 58.8¢Risks 58.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +58.75u · ICON −58.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T14:09:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-10T07:40:57+00:00	99.9%	73.9%	94.3%	96.6%	—
2026-09-10T08:26:04+00:00	99.9%	73.9%	94.3%	96.6%	—
2026-09-10T09:11:08+00:00	99.9%	73.9%	94.3%	96.6%	—
2026-09-10T09:56:12+00:00	99.9%	73.9%	94.3%	96.6%	—
2026-09-10T10:41:17+00:00	99.9%	73.9%	94.3%	96.6%	—
2026-09-14T15:28:47+00:00	59.8%	47.0%	73.9%	56.1%	42.9%
2026-09-14T16:13:53+00:00	59.8%	47.0%	73.9%	56.1%	42.9%
2026-09-14T16:58:59+00:00	59.8%	47.0%	74.5%	56.1%	42.9%
2026-09-14T17:44:05+00:00	59.8%	47.0%	74.5%	56.1%	42.9%
2026-09-14T18:29:13+00:00	59.8%	47.0%	74.5%	56.1%	42.9%
2026-09-14T19:14:18+00:00	59.8%	47.0%	74.5%	56.1%	42.9%
2026-09-14T19:59:24+00:00	67.4%	47.0%	74.5%	67.8%	28.6%
2026-09-14T20:44:29+00:00	67.4%	47.0%	74.5%	67.8%	28.6%
2026-09-14T21:29:34+00:00	67.4%	47.0%	74.5%	67.8%	28.6%
2026-09-14T22:14:39+00:00	67.4%	47.0%	74.5%	67.8%	28.6%
2026-09-14T22:59:45+00:00	67.4%	47.0%	77.8%	67.8%	28.6%
2026-09-14T23:44:53+00:00	67.4%	47.0%	77.8%	67.8%	28.6%
2026-09-15T00:29:59+00:00	67.4%	47.0%	77.8%	67.8%	28.6%
2026-09-15T01:15:06+00:00	67.4%	47.0%	77.8%	67.8%	28.6%
2026-09-15T02:00:12+00:00	64.1%	47.0%	77.8%	67.8%	28.6%
2026-09-15T02:45:17+00:00	64.1%	47.0%	77.8%	67.8%	28.6%
2026-09-15T03:30:36+00:00	64.1%	47.0%	77.8%	67.8%	28.6%
2026-09-15T04:15:42+00:00	64.1%	47.0%	77.8%	67.8%	28.6%
2026-09-15T05:00:48+00:00	64.1%	47.0%	74.5%	67.8%	28.6%
2026-09-15T05:45:53+00:00	64.1%	47.0%	74.5%	67.8%	28.6%
2026-09-15T06:31:01+00:00	64.1%	47.0%	74.5%	67.8%	28.6%
2026-09-15T07:16:08+00:00	64.1%	47.0%	74.5%	67.8%	28.6%
2026-09-15T08:01:36+00:00	58.4%	47.0%	74.5%	51.0%	14.9%
2026-09-15T08:46:44+00:00	58.4%	47.0%	74.5%	51.0%	14.9%
2026-09-15T09:31:49+00:00	58.4%	47.0%	74.5%	51.0%	14.9%
2026-09-15T10:16:59+00:00	58.4%	47.0%	74.5%	51.0%	14.9%
2026-09-15T11:02:12+00:00	58.4%	47.9%	77.1%	51.0%	14.9%
2026-09-15T11:47:19+00:00	58.4%	47.9%	77.1%	51.0%	14.9%
2026-09-15T12:32:24+00:00	58.4%	47.9%	77.1%	51.0%	14.9%
2026-09-15T13:17:29+00:00	58.4%	47.9%	77.1%	51.0%	14.9%
2026-09-15T14:02:42+00:00	62.9%	47.9%	77.1%	50.7%	14.9%
2026-09-15T14:48:56+00:00	62.9%	47.9%	77.1%	50.7%	14.9%
2026-09-15T15:34:03+00:00	62.9%	46.8%	77.1%	51.0%	14.9%
2026-09-15T16:19:17+00:00	62.9%	46.8%	77.1%	51.0%	14.9%
2026-09-15T17:04:26+00:00	62.9%	46.8%	77.1%	51.0%	14.9%
2026-09-15T17:49:32+00:00	62.9%	46.8%	77.1%	51.0%	14.9%
2026-09-15T18:34:41+00:00	62.9%	46.8%	77.1%	51.0%	14.9%
2026-09-15T19:19:46+00:00	62.9%	46.8%	77.1%	51.0%	14.9%
2026-09-15T20:04:51+00:00	54.7%	46.8%	77.1%	51.0%	17.6%
2026-09-15T20:49:58+00:00	54.7%	46.8%	77.1%	51.0%	17.6%
2026-09-15T21:35:07+00:00	54.7%	46.8%	77.1%	51.0%	17.6%
2026-09-15T22:20:12+00:00	54.7%	46.8%	77.1%	51.0%	17.6%
2026-09-15T23:05:19+00:00	54.7%	46.8%	73.5%	48.1%	17.6%
2026-09-15T23:50:25+00:00	54.7%	46.8%	73.5%	48.1%	17.6%
2026-09-16T00:35:30+00:00	54.7%	46.8%	73.5%	48.1%	17.6%
2026-09-16T01:20:42+00:00	54.7%	46.8%	73.5%	48.1%	17.6%
2026-09-16T02:05:54+00:00	54.7%	46.8%	73.5%	48.1%	17.6%
2026-09-16T02:51:03+00:00	54.7%	46.8%	73.5%	48.1%	17.6%
2026-09-16T03:36:27+00:00	54.7%	46.8%	73.5%	48.1%	17.6%
2026-09-16T04:21:35+00:00	54.7%	46.8%	73.5%	48.1%	17.6%
2026-09-16T05:06:41+00:00	54.7%	46.8%	71.6%	48.1%	17.6%
2026-09-16T05:51:49+00:00	54.7%	46.8%	71.6%	48.1%	17.6%
2026-09-16T06:36:57+00:00	54.7%	46.8%	71.6%	48.1%	17.6%
2026-09-16T07:22:22+00:00	52.9%	46.8%	71.6%	46.8%	9.3%
2026-09-16T08:07:36+00:00	52.9%	46.8%	71.6%	46.8%	9.3%
2026-09-16T08:52:42+00:00	52.9%	46.8%	71.6%	46.8%	9.3%
2026-09-16T09:37:56+00:00	52.9%	46.8%	71.6%	46.8%	9.3%
2026-09-16T10:23:02+00:00	52.9%	46.8%	71.6%	46.8%	9.3%
2026-09-16T11:08:12+00:00	52.9%	48.9%	73.2%	46.8%	9.3%
2026-09-16T11:53:18+00:00	52.9%	48.9%	73.2%	46.8%	9.3%
2026-09-16T12:38:23+00:00	52.9%	48.9%	73.2%	46.8%	9.3%
2026-09-16T13:23:29+00:00	54.8%	48.9%	73.2%	46.8%	9.3%
2026-09-16T14:09:49+00:00	54.8%	48.9%	73.2%	46.8%	9.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	83.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 00:00	0.5358
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-16 02:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	55%	82.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-16 06:00	0.3003
IFS Ensemble	49%	81.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-16 00:00	0.2391
IFS HRES	47%	81.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-16 00:00	0.2190
National Blend	13%	78.9°F	2.3°F	2026-09-16 06:00	0.0166
ICON	9%	76.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-16 00:00	0.0086

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20260917-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 10 · 07:40 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 82°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗