KSMF / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 16 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

55%

49%

47%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.2¢Risks 41.25u

ICONNO 58.8¢Risks 58.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +58.75u · ICON −58.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	97.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	95.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	95.2%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	87.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	91.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	3.3%	—	—	85.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	92.0%	—	—	89.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	90.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	58.4%	—	—	90.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	99.1%	—	—	88.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	8.7%	99.8%	0.2%	52.1%	90.7%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	98.0%	99.5%	97.2%	—	95.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	99.2%	92.4%	78.9%	—	93.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	92.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	11.1%	99.7%	99.7%	—	97.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	99.9%	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	98.5%	100.0%	97.8%	—	98.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	15.7%	99.9%	—	—	95.1%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	94.1%	34.6%	—	83.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	0.0%	79.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	6.6%	—	56.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	0.0%	65.7%	—	—	51.9%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	0.2%	59.6%	5.9%	—	45.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	50.0%	49.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.5%	0.0%	53.1%	20.4%	0.0%	66.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.5%	21.3%	65.5%	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	19.0%	54.4%	3.8%	0.0%	29.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	29.6%	59.0%	0.0%	—	8.7%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	20.7%	51.2%	5.7%	—	24.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	32.5%	40.5%	4.3%	—	25.3%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	15.1%	51.2%	10.0%	14.4%	20.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	13.5%	39.8%	8.2%	—	24.8%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	8.9%	31.9%	4.3%	8.4%	19.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	4.7%	30.0%	3.5%	—	14.7%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	4.4%	30.5%	2.1%	7.3%	8.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	4.4%	28.5%	5.1%	—	12.0%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	6.6%	20.3%	4.4%	8.3%	13.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	3.4%	3.4%	3.1%	—	4.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	83.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 00:00	0.5358
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-16 02:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	55%	82.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-16 06:00	0.3003
IFS Ensemble	49%	81.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-16 00:00	0.2391
IFS HRES	47%	81.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-16 00:00	0.2190
National Blend	13%	78.9°F	2.3°F	2026-09-16 06:00	0.0166
ICON	9%	76.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-16 00:00	0.0086

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20260917-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 10 · 07:40 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 82°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗