KSMF / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 83°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 11 · 02:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

93%

87%

87%

72%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 82.5¢Risks 82.55u

EPSNO 17.4¢Risks 17.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +17.45u · EPS −17.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T02:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-10T11:26:25+00:00	99.9%	73.2%	96.7%	95.2%	—
2026-09-10T12:11:30+00:00	99.9%	73.2%	96.7%	95.2%	—
2026-09-10T12:56:34+00:00	99.9%	73.2%	96.7%	95.2%	—
2026-09-10T13:41:39+00:00	99.7%	73.2%	96.7%	95.2%	—
2026-09-10T14:26:58+00:00	99.7%	73.1%	96.7%	95.2%	—
2026-09-10T15:12:07+00:00	99.7%	73.1%	96.7%	95.2%	—
2026-09-10T15:57:13+00:00	99.7%	73.1%	96.7%	95.2%	—
2026-09-10T16:42:19+00:00	99.7%	73.1%	96.7%	95.2%	31.6%
2026-09-10T17:27:25+00:00	99.7%	73.1%	95.4%	95.2%	31.6%
2026-09-10T18:12:31+00:00	99.7%	73.1%	95.4%	95.2%	31.6%
2026-09-10T18:57:36+00:00	99.7%	73.1%	95.4%	95.2%	31.6%
2026-09-10T19:42:43+00:00	97.2%	73.1%	95.4%	93.1%	87.1%
2026-09-10T20:27:47+00:00	97.2%	73.1%	95.4%	93.1%	87.1%
2026-09-10T21:12:52+00:00	97.2%	73.1%	95.4%	93.1%	87.1%
2026-09-10T21:57:57+00:00	97.2%	73.1%	95.4%	93.1%	87.1%
2026-09-10T22:43:01+00:00	97.2%	73.1%	95.4%	93.1%	87.1%
2026-09-10T23:28:07+00:00	97.2%	73.1%	92.7%	93.1%	87.1%
2026-09-11T00:13:12+00:00	97.2%	73.1%	92.7%	93.1%	87.1%
2026-09-11T00:58:20+00:00	97.2%	74.2%	92.7%	93.1%	87.1%
2026-09-11T01:43:26+00:00	87.4%	72.0%	92.7%	93.1%	87.1%
2026-09-11T02:28:31+00:00	87.4%	72.0%	92.7%	93.1%	87.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	93%	91.6°F	6.1°F	2026-09-10 12:00	0.8668
WeatherNext 2	93%	89.4°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 12:00	0.8593
AIFS Single	87%	88.8°F	5.5°F	2026-09-10 18:00	0.7639
ICON	87%	93.6°F	9.8°F	2026-09-10 12:00	0.7586
IFS Ensemble	72%	86.1°F	6.2°F	2026-09-10 00:00	0.5184
National Blend	55%	83.4°F	6.7°F	2026-09-10 06:00	0.3069

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20260917-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 10 · 11:26 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 83°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗