KSMF / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 83°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 11 · 02:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

93%

87%

87%

72%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 82.5¢Risks 82.55u

EPSNO 17.4¢Risks 17.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +17.45u · EPS −17.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	96.6%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	93.7%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	93.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	2.4%	—	—	81.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	91.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	89.3%	—	—	86.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	51.9%	—	—	87.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	98.6%	—	—	85.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	6.3%	99.6%	0.1%	45.1%	87.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	96.9%	99.1%	95.8%	—	93.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	98.7%	89.3%	73.0%	—	90.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	7.8%	99.5%	99.5%	—	96.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	99.7%	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	97.4%	99.9%	96.4%	—	97.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	11.1%	99.9%	—	—	92.5%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	91.0%	26.9%	—	77.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	0.0%	72.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	4.1%	—	47.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	0.0%	56.6%	—	—	42.5%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	0.1%	50.0%	3.5%	—	35.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	40.1%	39.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	0.0%	42.8%	13.9%	0.0%	56.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	14.4%	55.3%	—	—	35.5%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	12.5%	43.5%	2.0%	0.0%	20.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	20.6%	47.8%	0.0%	—	5.1%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	13.4%	39.6%	3.1%	—	16.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	22.5%	29.3%	2.2%	—	16.7%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	8.9%	38.9%	5.5%	8.5%	13.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	7.7%	28.0%	4.3%	—	15.8%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	4.6%	21.0%	2.0%	4.3%	11.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	2.1%	19.1%	1.5%	—	8.1%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	1.9%	19.1%	0.8%	3.5%	4.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	1.8%	17.2%	2.2%	—	6.0%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	2.9%	11.0%	1.8%	3.7%	6.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.1%	—	1.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	93%	91.6°F	6.1°F	2026-09-10 12:00	0.8668
WeatherNext 2	93%	89.4°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 12:00	0.8593
AIFS Single	87%	88.8°F	5.5°F	2026-09-10 18:00	0.7639
ICON	87%	93.6°F	9.8°F	2026-09-10 12:00	0.7586
IFS Ensemble	72%	86.1°F	6.2°F	2026-09-10 00:00	0.5184
National Blend	55%	83.4°F	6.7°F	2026-09-10 06:00	0.3069

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20260917-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 10 · 11:26 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 83°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗