KSMF / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 93°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

86%

62%

54%

25%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 58.0¢Risks 58.00u

EPSNO 42.0¢Risks 42.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +42.00u · EPS −42.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T06:57:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-28T03:28:17+00:00	82.9%	29.2%	59.0%	81.5%	92.2%
2026-09-28T04:13:31+00:00	82.9%	29.2%	59.0%	81.5%	92.2%
2026-09-28T04:58:38+00:00	82.9%	29.2%	52.0%	81.5%	95.9%
2026-09-28T05:43:50+00:00	82.9%	29.2%	52.0%	81.5%	95.9%
2026-09-28T06:28:58+00:00	82.9%	29.2%	52.0%	81.5%	95.9%
2026-09-28T07:14:02+00:00	82.9%	29.2%	52.0%	81.5%	95.9%
2026-09-28T08:00:10+00:00	80.8%	29.2%	52.0%	85.2%	95.9%
2026-09-28T08:45:31+00:00	80.8%	29.2%	52.0%	85.2%	95.9%
2026-09-28T09:30:36+00:00	80.8%	29.2%	52.0%	85.2%	95.9%
2026-09-28T10:15:42+00:00	80.8%	29.2%	52.0%	85.2%	95.9%
2026-09-28T11:00:59+00:00	80.8%	24.7%	50.0%	85.2%	95.9%
2026-09-28T11:46:10+00:00	80.8%	24.7%	50.0%	85.2%	95.9%
2026-09-28T12:31:17+00:00	80.8%	24.7%	50.0%	85.2%	95.9%
2026-09-28T13:16:24+00:00	80.8%	24.7%	50.0%	85.2%	95.9%
2026-09-28T14:01:31+00:00	83.8%	24.7%	50.0%	85.2%	95.9%
2026-09-28T14:48:56+00:00	83.8%	24.7%	50.0%	85.2%	95.9%
2026-09-28T15:34:05+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	50.0%	85.2%	95.9%
2026-09-28T16:19:11+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	50.0%	85.2%	95.9%
2026-09-28T17:04:19+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	47.8%	85.2%	94.7%
2026-09-28T17:49:26+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	47.8%	85.2%	94.7%
2026-09-28T18:34:31+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	47.8%	85.2%	94.7%
2026-09-28T19:19:36+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	47.8%	85.2%	94.7%
2026-09-28T20:04:47+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	47.8%	85.7%	94.7%
2026-09-28T20:49:52+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	47.8%	85.7%	94.7%
2026-09-28T21:34:56+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	47.8%	85.7%	94.7%
2026-09-28T22:20:01+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	47.8%	85.7%	94.7%
2026-09-28T23:05:07+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	51.1%	85.7%	94.7%
2026-09-28T23:50:14+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	51.1%	85.7%	94.7%
2026-09-29T00:35:20+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	51.1%	85.7%	94.7%
2026-09-29T01:20:31+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	51.1%	85.7%	94.7%
2026-09-29T02:05:57+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	51.1%	85.7%	94.7%
2026-09-29T02:51:04+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	51.1%	85.7%	94.7%
2026-09-29T03:36:09+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	51.1%	85.7%	94.7%
2026-09-29T04:21:46+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	51.1%	85.7%	83.9%
2026-09-29T05:06:59+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	48.9%	85.7%	83.9%
2026-09-29T05:52:06+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	48.9%	85.7%	83.9%
2026-09-29T06:37:12+00:00	83.8%	23.7%	48.9%	85.7%	83.9%
2026-09-29T07:22:54+00:00	85.4%	23.7%	48.9%	85.2%	83.9%
2026-09-29T08:08:27+00:00	85.4%	23.7%	48.9%	85.2%	83.9%
2026-09-29T08:53:34+00:00	85.4%	23.7%	48.9%	85.2%	83.9%
2026-09-29T09:38:40+00:00	85.4%	23.7%	48.9%	85.2%	83.9%
2026-09-29T10:23:45+00:00	85.4%	23.7%	48.9%	85.2%	83.9%
2026-09-29T11:09:04+00:00	85.4%	24.1%	48.9%	85.2%	83.9%
2026-09-29T11:54:08+00:00	85.4%	24.1%	48.9%	85.2%	83.9%
2026-09-29T12:39:13+00:00	85.4%	24.1%	48.9%	85.2%	83.9%
2026-09-29T13:24:19+00:00	85.4%	24.1%	48.9%	85.2%	83.9%
2026-09-29T14:11:44+00:00	84.9%	24.1%	48.9%	85.2%	84.0%
2026-09-29T14:57:03+00:00	84.9%	24.4%	48.9%	85.2%	84.0%
2026-09-29T15:42:33+00:00	84.9%	24.4%	48.9%	85.2%	84.0%
2026-09-29T16:27:46+00:00	84.9%	24.4%	48.9%	85.2%	81.1%
2026-09-29T17:12:55+00:00	84.9%	24.4%	50.0%	85.2%	81.1%
2026-09-29T17:58:02+00:00	84.9%	24.4%	50.0%	85.2%	81.1%
2026-09-29T18:43:09+00:00	84.9%	24.4%	50.0%	85.2%	81.1%
2026-09-29T19:28:21+00:00	86.6%	24.4%	50.0%	80.9%	81.1%
2026-09-29T20:13:42+00:00	86.6%	24.4%	50.0%	80.9%	81.1%
2026-09-29T20:58:50+00:00	86.6%	24.4%	50.0%	80.9%	81.1%
2026-09-29T21:43:58+00:00	86.6%	24.4%	50.0%	80.9%	81.1%
2026-09-29T22:29:05+00:00	86.6%	24.4%	50.0%	80.9%	81.1%
2026-09-29T23:14:24+00:00	86.6%	24.4%	51.1%	80.9%	81.1%
2026-09-29T23:59:30+00:00	86.6%	24.4%	51.1%	80.9%	81.1%
2026-09-30T00:44:36+00:00	86.6%	24.4%	51.1%	80.9%	81.1%
2026-09-30T01:29:55+00:00	88.5%	24.4%	51.1%	80.9%	81.1%
2026-09-30T02:15:03+00:00	88.5%	24.4%	51.1%	80.9%	81.1%
2026-09-30T03:00:17+00:00	88.5%	24.4%	51.1%	80.9%	81.1%
2026-09-30T03:45:26+00:00	88.5%	24.4%	51.1%	80.9%	81.1%
2026-09-30T04:31:10+00:00	88.5%	24.4%	51.1%	80.9%	67.5%
2026-09-30T05:16:24+00:00	88.5%	24.4%	57.8%	80.9%	67.5%
2026-09-30T06:01:31+00:00	88.5%	24.4%	57.8%	80.9%	67.5%
2026-09-30T06:46:39+00:00	88.5%	24.4%	57.8%	80.9%	67.5%
2026-09-30T07:32:40+00:00	88.5%	24.4%	57.8%	87.5%	67.5%
2026-09-30T08:18:27+00:00	88.5%	24.4%	57.8%	87.5%	67.5%
2026-09-30T09:03:37+00:00	88.5%	24.4%	57.8%	87.5%	67.5%
2026-09-30T09:48:44+00:00	88.5%	24.4%	57.8%	87.5%	67.5%
2026-09-30T10:34:53+00:00	88.7%	24.4%	57.8%	87.5%	67.5%
2026-09-30T11:20:09+00:00	88.7%	24.0%	59.2%	87.5%	67.5%
2026-09-30T12:05:16+00:00	88.7%	24.0%	59.2%	87.5%	67.5%
2026-09-30T12:50:22+00:00	88.7%	24.0%	59.2%	87.5%	67.5%
2026-09-30T13:35:36+00:00	87.8%	24.0%	59.2%	87.5%	67.5%
2026-09-30T14:23:12+00:00	87.8%	23.9%	59.2%	87.5%	67.6%
2026-09-30T15:08:18+00:00	87.8%	25.1%	59.2%	87.5%	67.6%
2026-09-30T15:53:44+00:00	87.8%	25.1%	59.2%	87.5%	67.6%
2026-09-30T16:38:53+00:00	87.8%	25.1%	59.2%	87.5%	62.3%
2026-09-30T17:24:00+00:00	87.8%	25.1%	59.2%	87.5%	62.3%
2026-09-30T18:09:08+00:00	87.8%	25.1%	59.2%	87.5%	62.3%
2026-09-30T18:54:16+00:00	87.8%	25.1%	59.2%	87.5%	62.3%
2026-09-30T19:39:24+00:00	88.7%	25.1%	59.2%	85.8%	62.3%
2026-09-30T20:24:35+00:00	88.7%	25.1%	59.2%	85.8%	62.3%
2026-09-30T21:09:41+00:00	88.7%	25.1%	59.2%	85.8%	62.3%
2026-09-30T21:54:47+00:00	88.7%	25.1%	59.2%	85.8%	62.3%
2026-09-30T22:39:53+00:00	88.7%	25.1%	59.2%	85.8%	62.3%
2026-09-30T23:24:58+00:00	88.7%	25.1%	54.6%	85.8%	62.3%
2026-10-01T00:10:39+00:00	88.7%	25.1%	54.6%	85.8%	62.3%
2026-10-01T00:55:52+00:00	88.7%	25.1%	54.6%	85.8%	62.3%
2026-10-01T01:41:00+00:00	90.9%	25.1%	54.6%	85.8%	62.3%
2026-10-01T02:26:06+00:00	90.9%	25.1%	54.6%	85.8%	62.3%
2026-10-01T03:11:53+00:00	90.9%	25.1%	54.6%	85.8%	62.3%
2026-10-01T03:57:06+00:00	90.9%	25.1%	54.6%	85.8%	62.3%
2026-10-01T04:42:11+00:00	90.9%	25.1%	54.6%	85.8%	62.3%
2026-10-01T05:27:16+00:00	90.9%	25.1%	53.5%	85.8%	62.3%
2026-10-01T06:12:21+00:00	90.9%	25.1%	53.5%	85.8%	62.3%
2026-10-01T06:57:26+00:00	90.9%	25.1%	53.5%	85.8%	62.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	91%	97.9°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.0083
IFS HRES	86%	96.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.0202
ICON	62%	93.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.1421
National Blend	61%	93.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.1544
NWS forecast	59%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 02:00	0.1681
WeatherNext 2	54%	92.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.2162
IFS Ensemble	25%	90.1°F	3.6°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.5610

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261001-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 28 · 03:28 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 93°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗