KSMF / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 93°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

86%

62%

54%

25%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 58.0¢Risks 58.00u

EPSNO 42.0¢Risks 42.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +42.00u · EPS −42.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	58.7%	—	—	14.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	35.9%	—	—	38.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	67.6%	—	—	33.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	0.0%	62.6%	—	—	45.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	69.5%	0.0%	—	42.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	4.4%	60.8%	16.1%	—	41.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	11.0%	42.4%	0.1%	—	43.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	22.4%	49.2%	54.0%	—	57.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	64.7%	58.3%	46.7%	—	59.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	2.8%	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	84.9%	77.9%	66.2%	—	66.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	82.2%	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	89.0%	87.1%	68.6%	—	73.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	92.6%	85.2%	—	—	67.4%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	93.8%	82.3%	55.8%	—	72.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	92.7%	82.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	93.3%	89.7%	40.8%	—	77.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	87.9%	89.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	85.7%	91.9%	47.8%	—	77.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	85.9%	90.3%	0.0%	—	72.4%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	84.7%	86.0%	44.2%	39.6%	78.5%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	85.5%	86.8%	42.8%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	81.8%	84.9%	40.1%	41.3%	78.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	72.0%	84.2%	38.5%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	79.0%	86.6%	42.0%	44.6%	79.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	82.7%	86.1%	54.2%	—	79.9%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	77.8%	85.4%	58.6%	51.4%	77.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	77.6%	88.0%	51.5%	—	74.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	75.0%	85.8%	89.0%	34.6%	60.9%	66.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	89.3%	85.9%	87.7%	50.0%	—	69.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	91%	97.9°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.0083
IFS HRES	86%	96.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.0202
ICON	62%	93.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.1421
National Blend	61%	93.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.1544
NWS forecast	59%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 02:00	0.1681
WeatherNext 2	54%	92.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.2162
IFS Ensemble	25%	90.1°F	3.6°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.5610

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261001-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 28 · 03:28 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 93°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗