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KSMF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
WN2
98%
AIFS
97%
HRES
95%
ICON
90%
Consensus
95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 94.7¢Risks 23.66u
VS
ICONNO 5.3¢Risks 1.34u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +1.34u · ICON −1.34u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-14T03:00:13+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-14T06:46:20+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-14T10:34:49+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00AIFS Single: 97.2% · 2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00AIFS Single: 97.2% · 2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T03:00:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T06:46:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T10:34:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-14T03:00:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-14T06:46:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-14T10:34:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.7% · 2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.7% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.7% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.7% · 2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.7% · 2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-14T03:00:13+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-14T06:46:20+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00IFS HRES: 95.2% · 2026-10-14T10:34:49+00:00IFS HRES: 95.2% · 2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00IFS HRES: 95.2% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00IFS HRES: 95.2% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00IFS HRES: 95.2% · 2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00IFS HRES: 95.2% · 2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00ICON: 96.9% · 2026-10-14T03:00:13+00:00ICON: 96.9% · 2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00ICON: 96.9% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00ICON: 96.9% · 2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00ICON: 96.9% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00ICON: 96.9% · 2026-10-14T06:46:20+00:00ICON: 89.3% · 2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00ICON: 89.3% · 2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00ICON: 89.3% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00ICON: 89.3% · 2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00ICON: 89.3% · 2026-10-14T10:34:49+00:00ICON: 89.3% · 2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00ICON: 89.3% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00ICON: 89.3% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00ICON: 89.3% · 2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00ICON: 89.7% · 2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:0010-14 03:0010-14 09:0110-14 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T03:00:13+00:0089.5%99.8%86.8%72.8%96.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:0089.5%99.8%86.8%72.8%96.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:0089.5%99.8%86.8%72.8%96.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:0089.5%99.8%86.8%72.8%96.9%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:0089.5%99.8%86.8%72.8%96.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:20+00:0089.5%99.8%86.8%72.8%96.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:0095.3%99.8%86.8%72.8%89.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:0095.3%99.8%86.8%72.8%89.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:0095.3%99.8%86.8%72.8%89.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:0095.3%99.8%86.8%72.8%89.3%
2026-10-14T10:34:49+00:0095.3%99.8%86.8%95.2%89.3%
2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:0095.3%99.6%97.7%95.2%89.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:0095.3%99.6%97.7%95.2%89.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:0095.3%99.6%97.7%95.2%89.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:0097.2%99.6%97.7%95.2%89.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:0097.2%99.6%97.7%95.2%89.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%88.0°F3.2°F2026-10-14 00:000.0000
WeatherNext 298%86.9°F3.7°F2026-10-14 00:000.0005
AIFS Single97%88.3°F4.6°F2026-10-14 06:000.0008
IFS HRES95%87.8°F5.0°F2026-10-14 00:000.0023
ICON90%85.6°F4.8°F2026-10-14 00:000.0106
National Blend56%80.0°F3.1°F2026-10-14 06:000.1910
NWS forecast55%80.0°F4.5°F2026-10-14 02:000.2070

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261018-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗