KSMF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

97%

95%

90%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 94.7¢Risks 23.66u

ICONNO 5.3¢Risks 1.34u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +1.34u · ICON −1.34u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	84.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	86.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	91.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	91.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	7.9%	—	—	87.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	95.1%	—	—	88.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	92.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	94.9%	—	—	79.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	97.3%	—	—	82.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	95.8%	82.5%	0.8%	—	85.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	87.6%	76.3%	88.0%	—	79.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	93.2%	82.1%	87.1%	—	87.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	90.0%	64.8%	81.6%	—	84.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	96.1%	81.0%	97.0%	—	84.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	5.6%	89.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	83.3%	87.8%	97.6%	—	93.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	89.2%	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	92.4%	91.4%	99.0%	—	97.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	97.0%	86.3%	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	85.8%	97.6%	87.9%	99.4%	—	96.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	98.4%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	86.1%	96.5%	90.6%	99.7%	—	91.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	83.7%	98.4%	86.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	97.7%	83.1%	99.3%	—	96.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	98.4%	88.2%	0.0%	—	95.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	98.2%	89.0%	99.1%	—	95.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	72.7%	98.0%	89.2%	97.5%	—	94.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	97.9%	90.5%	99.0%	87.6%	92.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	98.4%	94.0%	99.2%	—	96.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	95.4%	98.0%	94.7%	99.4%	91.1%	98.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	95.0%	97.7%	99.5%	—	98.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	96.3%	97.3%	99.0%	99.6%	96.3%	98.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	96.8%	97.3%	99.5%	99.7%	—	98.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	96.3%	99.7%	99.0%	98.0%	98.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	98.3%	99.8%	98.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	88.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	98%	86.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0005
AIFS Single	97%	88.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0008
IFS HRES	95%	87.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0023
ICON	90%	85.6°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0106
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1910
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2070

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261018-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗