KSMF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

89%

88%

86%

59%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.0¢Risks 75.00u

ICONNO 25.0¢Risks 25.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.00u · ICON −25.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:20:16+00:00	69.2%	80.5%	68.0%	46.9%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	69.2%	80.5%	68.0%	46.9%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	69.2%	80.5%	68.0%	46.9%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:57+00:00	68.6%	80.5%	68.0%	46.9%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	68.5%	80.5%	67.9%	46.9%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:13+00:00	68.5%	76.6%	67.9%	46.9%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	68.5%	76.6%	67.9%	46.9%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:28+00:00	68.5%	76.6%	67.9%	46.9%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	68.5%	76.6%	68.6%	46.9%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00	68.5%	76.6%	68.6%	46.9%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	68.5%	76.6%	68.6%	46.9%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:35+00:00	45.7%	76.6%	68.6%	84.0%	85.2%
2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00	45.7%	76.6%	68.6%	84.0%	85.2%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	45.7%	76.6%	68.6%	84.0%	85.2%
2026-10-11T21:59:03+00:00	45.7%	76.6%	68.6%	84.0%	85.2%
2026-10-11T22:44:17+00:00	45.7%	76.6%	68.6%	84.0%	85.2%
2026-10-11T23:29:38+00:00	45.7%	76.6%	53.2%	84.0%	85.2%
2026-10-12T00:14:48+00:00	45.7%	76.6%	53.2%	84.0%	85.2%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	45.7%	76.6%	53.2%	84.0%	85.2%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	42.9%	76.6%	53.2%	84.0%	85.2%
2026-10-12T02:30:32+00:00	42.9%	76.6%	53.2%	84.0%	85.2%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	42.9%	76.6%	53.2%	84.0%	85.2%
2026-10-12T04:02:05+00:00	42.9%	76.6%	53.2%	84.0%	85.2%
2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00	42.9%	76.6%	53.2%	84.0%	85.2%
2026-10-12T05:32:24+00:00	42.9%	76.6%	58.0%	84.0%	85.2%
2026-10-12T06:17:31+00:00	42.9%	76.6%	58.0%	84.0%	85.2%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	42.9%	76.6%	58.0%	84.0%	85.2%
2026-10-12T07:49:05+00:00	41.8%	76.6%	58.0%	39.2%	79.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00	41.8%	76.6%	58.0%	39.2%	79.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	41.8%	76.6%	58.0%	39.2%	79.6%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	41.8%	76.6%	58.0%	39.2%	79.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	41.8%	76.6%	58.0%	39.2%	79.6%
2026-10-12T11:35:41+00:00	41.8%	76.6%	49.1%	39.2%	79.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	41.8%	87.2%	49.1%	39.2%	79.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	41.8%	87.2%	49.1%	39.2%	79.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00	61.1%	87.2%	49.1%	39.2%	79.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	61.1%	86.8%	49.1%	39.2%	79.6%
2026-10-12T15:27:47+00:00	61.1%	86.8%	49.1%	39.2%	79.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	61.1%	86.6%	49.1%	39.2%	79.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:08+00:00	61.1%	86.6%	55.2%	39.2%	79.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	61.1%	86.6%	55.2%	39.2%	79.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	61.1%	86.6%	55.2%	39.2%	79.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	61.1%	86.6%	55.2%	39.2%	79.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	59.7%	86.6%	55.2%	64.8%	85.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	59.7%	86.6%	55.2%	64.8%	85.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	59.7%	86.6%	55.2%	64.8%	85.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	59.7%	86.6%	55.2%	64.8%	85.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	59.7%	86.6%	66.9%	64.8%	85.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	59.7%	86.6%	66.9%	64.8%	85.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	59.7%	86.6%	66.9%	64.8%	85.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	59.7%	86.6%	66.9%	64.8%	85.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	56.0%	86.6%	66.9%	64.8%	85.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	56.0%	86.6%	66.9%	64.8%	85.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	56.0%	86.6%	66.9%	64.8%	85.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	78.9%	93.1%	88.7%	91.0%	79.0%
2026-10-15T04:48:12+00:00	78.9%	93.1%	88.7%	91.0%	79.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	78.9%	93.1%	87.6%	91.0%	79.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	78.9%	93.1%	87.6%	91.0%	79.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	78.9%	93.1%	87.6%	91.0%	79.0%
2026-10-15T07:50:34+00:00	81.8%	93.1%	87.6%	72.7%	88.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	81.8%	93.1%	87.6%	72.7%	88.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	81.8%	93.1%	87.6%	72.7%	88.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	81.8%	93.1%	87.6%	72.7%	88.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00	81.8%	93.1%	87.0%	72.7%	88.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:41+00:00	81.8%	93.1%	87.0%	72.7%	88.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	81.8%	92.1%	87.0%	72.7%	88.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:40+00:00	81.8%	92.1%	87.0%	72.7%	88.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	78.0%	91.9%	87.0%	72.7%	88.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	78.0%	91.9%	87.0%	72.7%	88.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:42+00:00	78.0%	92.0%	87.0%	72.7%	88.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	78.0%	92.0%	87.0%	72.7%	88.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	78.0%	92.0%	87.0%	72.7%	88.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	78.0%	92.0%	87.0%	72.7%	88.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	78.0%	92.0%	87.0%	72.7%	88.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	78.0%	92.0%	87.0%	72.7%	88.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:23+00:00	80.6%	92.0%	87.0%	70.4%	82.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	80.6%	92.0%	87.0%	70.4%	82.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	80.6%	92.0%	87.0%	70.4%	82.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	80.6%	92.0%	87.0%	70.4%	82.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	80.6%	92.0%	82.9%	70.4%	82.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	80.6%	92.0%	82.9%	70.4%	82.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	80.6%	92.0%	82.9%	70.4%	82.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:52+00:00	77.3%	92.0%	82.9%	70.4%	82.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	77.3%	92.0%	82.9%	70.4%	82.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	77.3%	92.0%	82.9%	70.4%	82.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00	77.3%	92.0%	82.9%	70.4%	82.4%
2026-10-16T04:25:07+00:00	77.3%	92.0%	82.9%	70.4%	82.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	77.3%	92.0%	85.0%	70.4%	82.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	77.3%	92.0%	85.0%	70.4%	82.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	77.3%	92.0%	85.0%	70.4%	82.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	78.4%	92.0%	85.0%	70.4%	80.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	78.4%	92.0%	85.0%	70.4%	80.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	78.4%	92.0%	85.0%	70.4%	80.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	78.4%	92.0%	85.0%	70.4%	80.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	78.4%	92.0%	85.0%	70.4%	80.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	78.4%	87.8%	89.0%	70.4%	80.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	78.4%	87.8%	89.0%	70.4%	80.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	78.4%	87.8%	89.0%	70.4%	80.2%
2026-10-16T13:29:00+00:00	73.0%	87.8%	89.0%	82.9%	80.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	73.0%	87.7%	89.0%	82.9%	80.2%
2026-10-17T04:42:37+00:00	64.4%	89.4%	75.1%	77.5%	79.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	64.4%	89.4%	66.3%	77.5%	79.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	64.4%	89.4%	66.3%	77.5%	79.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	64.4%	89.4%	66.3%	77.5%	79.4%
2026-10-17T07:45:08+00:00	70.3%	89.4%	66.3%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00	70.3%	89.4%	66.3%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	70.3%	89.4%	66.3%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	70.3%	89.4%	66.3%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	70.3%	89.4%	66.3%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	70.3%	87.6%	76.5%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	70.3%	87.6%	76.5%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	70.3%	87.6%	76.5%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	77.6%	87.6%	76.5%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	77.7%	87.1%	76.5%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	77.7%	87.6%	76.5%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	77.7%	87.6%	76.5%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	77.7%	87.6%	79.5%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	77.7%	87.6%	79.5%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	77.7%	87.6%	79.5%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	77.7%	87.6%	79.5%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:18+00:00	86.8%	87.6%	79.5%	89.2%	59.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	86.8%	87.6%	79.5%	89.2%	59.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	86.8%	87.6%	79.5%	89.2%	59.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	86.8%	87.6%	79.5%	89.2%	59.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	86.8%	87.6%	91.0%	89.2%	59.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	86.8%	87.6%	91.0%	89.2%	59.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	86.8%	87.6%	91.0%	89.2%	59.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	86.8%	87.6%	91.0%	89.2%	59.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	86.2%	87.6%	91.0%	89.2%	59.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	86.2%	87.6%	91.0%	89.2%	59.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	86.2%	87.6%	91.0%	89.2%	59.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	87.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0081
IFS HRES	89%	88.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0117
IFS Ensemble	88%	87.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0154
AIFS Single	86%	87.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0190
ICON	59%	84.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1681
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
National Blend	44%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.3136

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261018-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗