KSMF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

89%

88%

86%

59%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.0¢Risks 75.00u

ICONNO 25.0¢Risks 25.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.00u · ICON −25.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	70.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	—	—	—	78.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	77.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	2.1%	—	—	71.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	84.7%	—	—	70.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	83.6%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	89.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	89.5%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	84.7%	59.1%	0.1%	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	66.3%	49.3%	67.0%	—	52.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	76.6%	56.1%	64.2%	—	65.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	68.4%	33.7%	54.0%	—	57.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	82.2%	51.7%	85.2%	—	56.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	0.7%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	53.5%	61.3%	86.4%	—	72.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	63.2%	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	69.5%	67.0%	91.7%	—	83.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.9%	82.3%	55.7%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	53.9%	84.1%	57.7%	93.8%	—	79.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	87.1%	62.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	78.1%	61.2%	96.0%	—	64.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	86.2%	51.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	81.7%	44.5%	91.0%	—	76.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	84.6%	52.2%	0.0%	—	72.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	82.5%	52.3%	88.4%	—	70.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	80.1%	51.2%	77.5%	—	66.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	78.3%	52.5%	85.6%	46.3%	58.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	80.0%	60.2%	87.2%	—	67.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	63.2%	76.0%	60.6%	87.4%	50.0%	80.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	59.7%	72.4%	87.5%	—	78.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.8%	68.2%	80.9%	87.8%	62.8%	79.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	66.2%	85.6%	88.8%	—	77.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	57.9%	86.6%	77.4%	68.3%	68.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	67.6%	87.7%	71.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	87.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0081
IFS HRES	89%	88.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0117
IFS Ensemble	88%	87.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0154
AIFS Single	86%	87.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0190
ICON	59%	84.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1681
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
National Blend	44%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.3136

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261018-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗