KSMF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 88°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

53%

53%

51%

18%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 37.3¢Risks 37.30u

ICONNO 62.7¢Risks 62.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +62.70u · ICON −62.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	65.3%	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	62.8%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	71.8%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	62.4%	31.7%	0.0%	—	35.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	37.8%	22.6%	38.5%	—	25.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	48.5%	27.0%	34.4%	—	35.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	37.5%	11.1%	24.2%	—	27.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	53.3%	21.3%	58.3%	—	25.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	0.1%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	21.4%	27.7%	58.7%	—	38.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	28.7%	20.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	33.9%	31.4%	67.8%	—	51.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	49.0%	21.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	51.0%	21.8%	71.3%	—	43.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	55.0%	24.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	39.8%	22.7%	76.5%	—	25.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	51.1%	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	42.4%	10.9%	59.7%	—	35.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	45.5%	14.1%	0.0%	—	29.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	40.8%	13.4%	51.2%	—	26.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	35.9%	11.9%	32.5%	—	21.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	32.0%	11.8%	42.6%	8.9%	15.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	32.5%	15.0%	43.6%	—	20.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	26.2%	14.1%	42.0%	8.9%	30.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	12.4%	21.1%	40.3%	—	27.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	16.3%	28.0%	38.6%	13.0%	26.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	13.6%	32.5%	38.1%	—	22.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	8.3%	31.7%	20.3%	13.4%	13.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	11.5%	30.9%	14.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	56%	88.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3181
IFS Ensemble	53%	87.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2830
AIFS Single	53%	87.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2809
WeatherNext 2	51%	87.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2642
ICON	18%	84.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0331
National Blend	2%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0005
NWS forecast	<1%	82.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261018-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗