KSMF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

33%

32%

26%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 21.1¢Risks 21.15u

ICONNO 78.8¢Risks 78.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +78.85u · ICON −78.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	53.1%	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	50.0%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	59.4%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	48.6%	20.4%	0.0%	—	23.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	24.9%	13.2%	25.4%	—	15.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	33.7%	16.0%	21.6%	—	22.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	23.6%	5.3%	13.6%	—	15.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	36.9%	11.2%	41.7%	—	13.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.0%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	10.9%	15.1%	41.3%	—	23.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	15.5%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	19.0%	17.2%	50.0%	—	33.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	30.9%	10.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	32.1%	10.2%	52.9%	—	25.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	35.3%	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	21.9%	10.3%	58.2%	—	11.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	30.7%	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	23.0%	3.8%	38.2%	—	17.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	24.9%	5.1%	0.0%	—	13.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	20.7%	4.5%	28.9%	—	11.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	16.7%	3.7%	14.5%	—	8.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	13.7%	3.5%	20.8%	2.5%	4.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	13.5%	4.6%	20.9%	—	6.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	9.5%	4.0%	19.1%	2.2%	12.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	3.2%	6.7%	17.3%	—	9.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	4.4%	9.5%	15.4%	3.2%	8.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	3.2%	11.2%	14.4%	—	6.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	1.5%	10.2%	5.2%	2.9%	2.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	2.1%	9.2%	2.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	35%	88.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1246
AIFS Single	33%	87.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1109
IFS Ensemble	32%	87.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1050
WeatherNext 2	26%	87.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0660
ICON	7%	84.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0049
National Blend	<1%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0000
NWS forecast	<1%	82.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261018-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Sacramento · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗