KSMF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

85%

61%

49%

16%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.4¢Risks 55.40u

HRESNO 44.6¢Risks 44.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.60u · HRES −44.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:34+00:00	72.7%	94.3%	56.4%	59.4%	86.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	72.7%	94.3%	51.6%	59.4%	86.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	72.7%	94.3%	51.6%	59.4%	86.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	72.7%	94.3%	51.6%	59.4%	86.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	72.7%	94.3%	51.6%	59.4%	86.2%
2026-10-13T08:04:20+00:00	78.6%	94.3%	51.6%	20.1%	57.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	78.6%	94.3%	51.6%	20.1%	57.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	78.6%	94.3%	51.6%	20.1%	57.9%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	78.6%	94.3%	51.6%	20.1%	57.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:28+00:00	78.6%	95.1%	61.2%	20.1%	57.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	78.6%	95.1%	61.2%	20.1%	57.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	78.6%	95.1%	61.2%	20.1%	57.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	78.6%	95.1%	61.2%	20.1%	57.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	63.3%	95.1%	61.2%	20.1%	58.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	63.3%	94.7%	61.2%	20.1%	58.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:55+00:00	63.3%	94.7%	61.2%	20.1%	58.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	63.3%	94.7%	61.2%	20.1%	58.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	63.3%	94.7%	55.2%	20.1%	58.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	63.3%	94.7%	55.2%	20.1%	58.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	63.3%	94.7%	55.2%	20.1%	58.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	40.3%	94.7%	55.2%	20.1%	85.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	40.3%	94.7%	55.2%	20.1%	85.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	40.3%	94.7%	55.2%	20.1%	85.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	40.3%	94.7%	55.2%	20.1%	85.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00	40.3%	94.7%	55.2%	16.1%	85.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	40.3%	94.7%	49.1%	16.1%	85.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	40.3%	94.7%	49.1%	16.1%	85.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	40.3%	94.7%	49.1%	16.1%	85.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	61.1%	94.7%	49.1%	16.1%	85.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	61.1%	94.7%	49.1%	16.1%	85.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	82.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	85%	81.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	76.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	74.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	74.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	68.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗