KSMF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

85%

61%

49%

16%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.4¢Risks 55.40u

HRESNO 44.6¢Risks 44.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.60u · HRES −44.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	93.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	95.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	91.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	97.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	—	—	—	—	95.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	94.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	—	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	23.3%	—	—	87.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	36.6%	—	—	77.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	0.8%	28.2%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	86.7%	26.9%	1.5%	—	63.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	35.0%	30.4%	1.7%	—	43.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	76.1%	34.4%	27.7%	—	32.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	86.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	41.3%	74.5%	56.4%	—	57.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	54.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	8.7%	36.9%	49.2%	—	80.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	2.5%	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	29.1%	22.8%	49.1%	—	44.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	16.6%	35.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	14.9%	39.1%	26.6%	—	22.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	3.0%	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	41.3%	15.9%	17.7%	—	21.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	4.0%	26.5%	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	19.0%	23.5%	15.1%	—	14.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	10.1%	24.5%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	10.4%	28.2%	14.9%	0.0%	13.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	4.8%	44.4%	0.0%	—	14.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	15.3%	44.2%	39.6%	27.0%	16.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	1.9%	41.6%	27.3%	—	16.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	12.4%	55.0%	19.1%	—	16.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.9%	12.2%	48.7%	13.5%	—	16.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	8.4%	46.0%	13.4%	34.3%	15.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	6.2%	55.6%	7.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	7.3%	52.9%	6.3%	28.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	82.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	85%	81.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	76.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	74.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	74.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	68.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗