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KSMF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
83%
AIFS
49%
HRES
47%
WN2
23%
ICON
8%
Consensus
46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 45.6¢Risks 45.60u
VS
ICONNO 54.4¢Risks 54.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.40u · ICON −54.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T07:49:05+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-12T07:49:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.6% · 2026-10-12T07:49:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.6% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00IFS HRES: 46.9% · 2026-10-12T07:49:05+00:00IFS HRES: 46.9% · 2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00IFS HRES: 46.9% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00IFS HRES: 46.9% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00IFS HRES: 46.9% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-12T07:49:05+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:0010-12 07:4910-12 09:1910-12 10:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:49:05+00:0049.3%82.8%22.6%46.9%8.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:0049.3%82.8%22.6%46.9%8.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:0049.3%82.8%22.6%46.9%8.4%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:0049.3%82.8%22.6%46.9%8.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:0049.3%82.8%22.6%46.9%8.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble83%83.6°F5.4°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
National Blend55%79.0°F4.4°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
AIFS Single49%78.4°F5.6°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
IFS HRES47%78.0°F6.3°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 223%74.5°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:00Pending
ICON8%64.9°F9.9°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261019-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 79°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗