KSMF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

49%

47%

23%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.6¢Risks 45.60u

ICONNO 54.4¢Risks 54.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.40u · ICON −54.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	92.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	—	—	—	86.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	77.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	9.0%	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	60.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	16.0%	—	—	53.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	0.1%	10.5%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	65.7%	9.3%	0.2%	—	36.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	13.2%	10.6%	0.2%	—	18.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	47.7%	12.2%	8.7%	—	11.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	62.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	15.4%	44.4%	26.1%	—	27.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	24.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	1.4%	12.0%	19.5%	—	50.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	0.2%	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	7.7%	5.2%	18.4%	—	15.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	3.1%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	2.5%	11.5%	6.1%	—	4.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	0.2%	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	11.6%	2.4%	2.9%	—	4.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	0.3%	5.1%	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	2.8%	4.0%	1.9%	—	1.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	1.0%	4.0%	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.9%	4.7%	1.6%	0.0%	1.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	0.3%	10.2%	0.0%	—	1.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	1.4%	9.4%	7.6%	3.8%	1.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	0.1%	7.8%	3.5%	—	1.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.8%	13.0%	1.7%	—	1.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.7%	9.2%	0.8%	—	1.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.3%	7.4%	0.7%	4.0%	0.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.2%	10.4%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.2%	8.3%	0.1%	2.1%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	83.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	79.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	78.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	78.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	74.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	8%	64.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261019-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 79°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗