KSMF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

84%

75%

32%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.0¢Risks 65.05u

HRESNO 35.0¢Risks 34.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.95u · HRES −34.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:25:07+00:00	91.2%	81.7%	81.6%	81.1%	87.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	91.2%	81.7%	84.1%	81.1%	87.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	91.2%	81.7%	84.1%	81.1%	87.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	91.2%	81.7%	84.1%	81.1%	87.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	88.5%	81.7%	84.1%	81.1%	72.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	88.5%	81.7%	84.1%	81.1%	72.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	88.5%	81.7%	84.1%	81.1%	72.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	88.5%	81.7%	84.1%	81.1%	72.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	88.5%	81.7%	84.1%	81.1%	72.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	88.5%	87.7%	90.2%	81.1%	72.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	88.5%	87.7%	90.2%	81.1%	72.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	88.5%	87.7%	90.2%	81.1%	72.5%
2026-10-16T13:29:00+00:00	87.6%	87.7%	90.2%	33.0%	72.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	87.6%	87.6%	90.2%	33.0%	72.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:49+00:00	87.6%	90.3%	90.2%	33.0%	72.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	87.6%	90.3%	90.2%	33.0%	72.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	87.6%	90.3%	90.2%	33.0%	72.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	87.6%	90.3%	84.0%	33.0%	72.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	87.6%	90.3%	84.0%	33.0%	72.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	87.6%	90.3%	84.0%	33.0%	72.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	86.3%	90.3%	84.0%	33.0%	96.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	86.3%	90.3%	84.0%	33.0%	96.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	86.3%	90.3%	84.0%	33.0%	96.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	86.3%	90.3%	84.0%	33.0%	96.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	86.3%	90.3%	84.0%	80.0%	96.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	86.3%	90.3%	90.6%	80.0%	96.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	86.3%	90.3%	90.6%	80.0%	96.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	86.3%	90.3%	90.6%	80.0%	96.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	89.7%	90.3%	90.6%	80.0%	96.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	89.7%	90.3%	90.6%	80.0%	96.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	89.7%	90.3%	90.6%	80.0%	96.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	89.7%	90.3%	90.6%	80.0%	96.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:37+00:00	89.7%	90.3%	90.6%	80.0%	96.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	89.7%	90.3%	92.3%	80.0%	96.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	89.7%	90.3%	92.3%	80.0%	96.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	89.7%	90.3%	92.3%	80.0%	96.0%
2026-10-17T07:45:08+00:00	94.1%	90.3%	92.3%	31.9%	75.2%
2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00	94.1%	90.3%	92.3%	31.9%	75.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	94.1%	90.3%	92.3%	31.9%	75.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	94.1%	90.3%	92.3%	31.9%	75.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	94.1%	90.3%	92.3%	31.9%	75.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	94.1%	84.9%	98.2%	31.9%	75.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	94.1%	84.9%	98.2%	31.9%	75.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	94.1%	84.9%	98.2%	31.9%	75.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	93.6%	84.9%	98.2%	31.9%	75.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	93.6%	84.5%	98.2%	31.9%	75.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	74.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	74.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	72.8°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	75%	70.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	69.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	65.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗