KSMF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

84%

75%

32%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.0¢Risks 65.05u

HRESNO 35.0¢Risks 34.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.95u · HRES −34.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	99.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	98.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	99.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	98.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	99.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	99.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	97.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	97.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	50.0%	—	—	82.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	9.3%	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	12.8%	68.8%	—	—	78.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	84.7%	66.4%	38.9%	0.7%	—	83.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	95.9%	99.7%	95.4%	72.2%	—	94.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	77.8%	87.5%	32.3%	—	98.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	14.9%	29.5%	50.0%	—	87.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	37.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	81.0%	23.8%	49.2%	—	73.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	6.7%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	60.4%	49.1%	74.5%	—	79.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	89.2%	59.8%	—	—	79.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	94.2%	63.6%	86.1%	—	69.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	41.5%	53.8%	—	—	82.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	68.7%	66.1%	71.3%	—	85.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	84.2%	45.0%	—	—	86.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	84.3%	98.5%	69.7%	88.7%	0.0%	88.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	87.9%	97.5%	72.1%	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	87.5%	92.7%	91.9%	96.7%	—	83.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	87.1%	83.9%	95.5%	0.1%	—	88.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	74.9%	96.7%	70.0%	0.0%	72.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	81.7%	90.8%	40.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	89.4%	88.8%	91.5%	45.0%	61.1%	94.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	87.8%	83.4%	92.8%	91.3%	—	95.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	90.5%	97.0%	94.3%	71.6%	95.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	56.9%	90.8%	81.8%	—	98.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	91.6%	74.4%	88.5%	77.8%	99.4%	97.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	96.8%	84.7%	—	98.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	74.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	74.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	72.8°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	75%	70.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	69.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	65.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗