KSMF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≤ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 3.8¢Risks 0.95u

ICONNO 96.2¢Risks 24.05u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.05u · ICON −24.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:29:00+00:00	5.6%	5.0%	3.4%	51.6%	15.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	5.5%	5.1%	3.4%	51.6%	15.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:49+00:00	5.5%	3.7%	3.4%	51.6%	15.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	5.5%	3.7%	3.4%	51.6%	15.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	5.5%	3.7%	3.4%	51.6%	15.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	5.5%	3.7%	6.3%	51.6%	15.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	5.5%	3.7%	6.3%	51.6%	15.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	5.5%	3.7%	6.3%	51.6%	15.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	6.3%	3.7%	6.3%	51.6%	1.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	6.3%	3.7%	6.3%	51.6%	1.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	6.3%	3.7%	6.3%	51.6%	1.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	6.3%	3.7%	6.3%	51.6%	1.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	6.3%	3.7%	6.3%	10.7%	1.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	6.3%	3.7%	3.2%	10.7%	1.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	6.3%	3.7%	3.2%	10.7%	1.5%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	6.3%	3.7%	3.2%	10.7%	1.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	4.4%	3.7%	3.2%	10.7%	1.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	4.4%	3.7%	3.2%	10.7%	1.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	4.4%	3.7%	3.2%	10.7%	1.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	4.4%	3.7%	3.2%	10.7%	1.5%
2026-10-17T04:42:37+00:00	4.4%	3.7%	3.2%	10.7%	1.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	4.4%	3.7%	2.5%	10.7%	1.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	4.4%	3.7%	2.5%	10.7%	1.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	4.4%	3.7%	2.5%	10.7%	1.5%
2026-10-17T07:45:08+00:00	2.1%	3.7%	2.5%	50.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00	2.1%	3.7%	2.5%	50.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	2.1%	3.7%	2.5%	50.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	2.1%	3.7%	2.5%	50.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	2.1%	3.7%	2.5%	50.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	2.1%	7.7%	0.3%	50.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	2.1%	7.7%	0.3%	50.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	2.1%	7.7%	0.3%	50.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	2.4%	7.7%	0.3%	50.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	2.4%	8.1%	0.3%	50.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	0.3%	50.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	0.3%	50.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	1.5%	50.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	1.5%	50.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	1.5%	50.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	1.5%	50.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:18+00:00	1.1%	7.3%	1.5%	4.7%	0.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	1.1%	7.3%	1.5%	4.7%	0.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	1.1%	7.3%	1.5%	4.7%	0.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	1.1%	7.3%	1.5%	4.7%	0.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	1.1%	7.3%	1.1%	4.7%	0.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	1.1%	7.3%	1.1%	4.7%	0.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	1.1%	7.3%	1.1%	4.7%	0.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	1.1%	7.3%	1.1%	4.7%	0.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	0.8%	7.3%	1.1%	4.7%	0.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	0.8%	7.3%	1.1%	4.7%	0.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	0.8%	7.3%	1.1%	4.7%	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	26%	69.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	19%	69.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	72.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	73.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	75.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	76.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 65°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261020-TMAX-LE65
Opened Oct 16 · 13:29 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 65°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗