KSMF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≤ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 3.8¢Risks 0.95u

ICONNO 96.2¢Risks 24.05u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.05u · ICON −24.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	37.6%	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	84.0%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	78.7%	20.3%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	21.9%	47.2%	98.2%	—	9.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.1%	2.0%	17.0%	—	2.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	12.5%	6.3%	53.0%	—	0.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	73.9%	55.6%	34.5%	—	6.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	9.7%	61.5%	34.5%	—	14.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	85.8%	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	24.1%	33.8%	13.6%	—	10.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	4.5%	24.2%	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	2.1%	20.9%	6.1%	—	16.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	39.7%	28.4%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	16.5%	18.3%	14.7%	—	6.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	6.6%	35.3%	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	0.4%	15.1%	4.2%	99.9%	4.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.6%	13.2%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	2.3%	2.6%	0.9%	—	6.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	6.0%	1.2%	99.6%	—	4.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	10.5%	0.8%	13.4%	99.9%	12.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	6.6%	2.7%	35.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	3.3%	2.3%	30.9%	18.2%	1.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	5.3%	1.8%	2.2%	—	1.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	2.4%	0.5%	1.2%	10.7%	1.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	19.1%	2.1%	5.4%	—	0.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	8.3%	2.7%	6.8%	0.1%	0.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.4%	3.7%	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	26%	69.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	19%	69.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	72.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	73.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	75.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	76.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 65°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261020-TMAX-LE65
Opened Oct 16 · 13:29 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 65°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗