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KSMF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
97%
WN2
81%
HRES
78%
EPS
53%
ICON
36%
Consensus
78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 66.1¢Risks 66.10u
VS
ICONNO 33.9¢Risks 33.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.90u · ICON −33.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 96.7% · 2026-10-14T10:34:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.6% · 2026-10-14T10:34:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-10-14T10:34:50+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-10-14T10:34:50+00:00ICON: 35.5% · 2026-10-14T10:34:50+00:0010-14 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

One recorded snapshot. Additional runs will extend this chart.

2026-10-14T10:34:50+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T10:34:50+00:0096.7%52.6%81.3%78.5%35.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single97%81.8°F5.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 281%76.3°F5.4°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
IFS HRES78%76.5°F6.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend53%72.0°F5.8°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble53%72.0°F7.7°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
ICON36%67.8°F9.9°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261021-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 72°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗