KSMF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

81%

78%

53%

36%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 66.1¢Risks 66.10u

ICONNO 33.9¢Risks 33.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.90u · ICON −33.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	95.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	97.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	96.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	94.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	96.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	94.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	—	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	—	—	—	93.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	83.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	71.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	3.5%	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	85.3%	8.2%	80.6%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	82.9%	69.5%	4.2%	—	91.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	4.8%	72.2%	36.4%	—	69.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	53.8%	27.0%	91.3%	—	71.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	99.3%	77.0%	99.1%	—	82.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	87.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	98.0%	84.8%	83.2%	—	74.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	0.6%	90.5%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	89.5%	97.1%	49.1%	—	80.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	20.9%	91.2%	—	—	79.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	9.8%	69.5%	8.3%	—	61.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	16.5%	39.7%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	78.2%	84.7%	0.8%	—	49.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	35.3%	44.0%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	52.1%	92.6%	2.5%	—	44.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	86.2%	92.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	52.2%	63.9%	31.1%	—	48.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	96.7%	69.5%	0.0%	—	51.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	94.6%	78.5%	0.4%	0.0%	60.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	98.0%	74.7%	0.2%	—	61.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	78.3%	72.4%	2.1%	28.7%	46.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	48.7%	5.3%	—	42.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	81.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	76.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	76.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	72.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	72.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	36%	67.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261021-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 72°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗