KSMF / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

90%

81%

78%

74%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 84.0¢Risks 42.00u

EPSNO 16.0¢Risks 8.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +8.00u · EPS −8.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:45:09+00:00	86.0%	81.7%	62.2%	59.8%	21.1%
2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00	86.0%	81.7%	62.2%	59.8%	21.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	86.0%	81.7%	62.2%	59.8%	21.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	86.0%	81.7%	62.2%	59.8%	21.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	86.0%	81.7%	62.2%	59.8%	21.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	86.0%	77.5%	56.2%	59.8%	21.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	86.0%	77.5%	56.2%	59.8%	21.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	86.0%	77.5%	56.2%	59.8%	21.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	86.0%	77.5%	56.2%	59.8%	21.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	86.0%	77.5%	56.2%	59.8%	21.4%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	86.0%	78.4%	56.2%	59.8%	21.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	86.0%	78.4%	56.2%	59.8%	21.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	86.0%	78.4%	66.7%	59.8%	21.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	86.0%	78.4%	66.7%	59.8%	21.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	86.0%	78.4%	66.7%	59.8%	21.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	86.0%	78.4%	66.7%	59.8%	21.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	83.1%	78.4%	66.7%	78.5%	43.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	83.1%	78.4%	66.7%	78.5%	43.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	83.1%	78.4%	66.7%	78.5%	43.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	83.1%	78.4%	66.7%	78.5%	43.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	83.1%	78.4%	50.8%	78.5%	43.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	83.1%	78.4%	50.8%	78.5%	43.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	83.1%	78.4%	50.8%	78.5%	43.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	83.1%	78.4%	50.8%	78.5%	43.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	78.8%	78.4%	50.8%	78.5%	43.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	78.8%	78.4%	50.8%	78.5%	43.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	78.8%	78.4%	50.8%	78.5%	43.6%
2026-10-18T04:14:52+00:00	78.8%	78.4%	50.8%	78.5%	43.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	78.8%	78.4%	54.7%	78.5%	43.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	78.8%	78.4%	54.7%	78.5%	43.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	78.8%	78.4%	54.7%	78.5%	43.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	78.8%	78.4%	54.7%	78.5%	43.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:54+00:00	82.7%	78.4%	54.7%	76.6%	88.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	82.7%	78.4%	54.7%	76.6%	88.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	82.7%	78.4%	54.7%	76.6%	88.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	82.7%	78.4%	54.7%	76.6%	88.5%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	82.7%	69.3%	68.8%	76.6%	88.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	82.7%	69.3%	68.8%	76.6%	88.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	82.7%	69.3%	68.8%	76.6%	88.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	82.7%	69.3%	68.8%	76.6%	88.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	80.8%	69.1%	68.9%	76.6%	88.5%
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00	80.8%	69.1%	68.9%	76.6%	88.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	80.8%	70.2%	68.9%	76.6%	88.5%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	80.8%	70.2%	68.9%	76.6%	88.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	80.8%	70.2%	65.8%	76.6%	88.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	80.8%	70.2%	65.8%	76.6%	88.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	80.8%	70.2%	65.8%	76.6%	88.5%
2026-10-18T19:28:01+00:00	80.8%	70.2%	65.8%	82.2%	91.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	80.8%	70.2%	65.8%	82.2%	91.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	80.8%	70.2%	65.8%	82.2%	91.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	80.8%	70.2%	65.8%	82.2%	91.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	80.8%	70.2%	65.8%	82.2%	91.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	80.8%	70.2%	67.4%	82.2%	91.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	80.8%	70.2%	67.4%	82.2%	91.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	80.8%	70.2%	67.4%	82.2%	91.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	86.6%	70.2%	67.4%	82.2%	91.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	86.6%	70.2%	67.4%	82.2%	91.3%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	86.6%	70.2%	67.4%	82.2%	91.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	86.6%	70.2%	67.4%	82.2%	91.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	85.4%	74.4%	73.7%	86.2%	91.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	85.4%	74.4%	73.7%	86.2%	91.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	85.4%	74.4%	73.7%	86.2%	91.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	85.4%	74.4%	79.6%	86.2%	91.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	85.4%	74.4%	79.6%	86.2%	91.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	85.4%	74.4%	79.6%	86.2%	91.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	86.3%	74.4%	79.6%	80.6%	89.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	86.3%	74.4%	79.6%	80.6%	89.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	86.3%	74.4%	79.6%	80.6%	89.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	86.3%	74.4%	79.6%	80.6%	89.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	86.3%	74.4%	79.6%	80.6%	89.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	86.3%	74.4%	77.5%	80.6%	89.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	86.3%	74.4%	77.5%	80.6%	89.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	86.3%	74.4%	77.5%	80.6%	89.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	93.6%	74.4%	77.5%	80.6%	89.7%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	93.6%	74.4%	77.5%	80.6%	89.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	93.6%	74.4%	77.5%	80.6%	89.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	78.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	90%	78.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	75.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	73.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	74.1°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261024-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗