KSMF / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

90%

81%

78%

74%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 84.0¢Risks 42.00u

EPSNO 16.0¢Risks 8.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +8.00u · EPS −8.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	—	—	—	77.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	78.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	79.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	78.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	69.9%	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	1.6%	75.6%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	13.4%	74.3%	2.3%	—	65.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	81.6%	92.4%	70.3%	—	58.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	87.5%	89.7%	84.5%	—	53.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	86.9%	95.0%	49.2%	—	72.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	85.2%	85.7%	56.6%	—	79.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	78.6%	5.6%	81.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	62.9%	82.2%	38.8%	29.9%	81.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	83.9%	—	—	82.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	78.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	90%	78.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	75.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	73.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	74.1°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261024-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗