KSMF / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

88%

85%

61%

28%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 62.2¢Risks 62.20u

ICONNO 37.8¢Risks 37.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.80u · ICON −37.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	89.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	54.8%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	93.9%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	18.0%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	3.8%	98.4%	—	—	72.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	89.8%	89.8%	93.7%	3.2%	—	79.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	90.0%	96.7%	90.0%	44.2%	92.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	97.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	79.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	76.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	85%	74.2°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	71.2°F	9.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	69.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	28%	62.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261026-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗