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KSMF / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
93%
AIFS
93%
EPS
86%
ICON
82%
WN2
75%
Consensus
83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 84.0¢Risks 41.98u
VS
WN2NO 16.0¢Risks 8.02u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +8.02u · WN2 −8.02u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 85.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:46+00:00AIFS Single: 85.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00AIFS Single: 85.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00AIFS Single: 85.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 85.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00AIFS Single: 92.8% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00AIFS Single: 92.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00AIFS Single: 92.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00AIFS Single: 92.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 92.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00AIFS Single: 92.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00AIFS Single: 92.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 92.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 92.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T04:05:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.8% · 2026-10-20T04:05:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-20T04:05:46+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00ICON: 78.2% · 2026-10-20T04:05:46+00:00ICON: 78.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00ICON: 78.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00ICON: 78.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 78.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:46+00:0085.6%54.9%74.8%93.2%78.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:0085.6%54.9%74.8%93.2%78.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:0085.6%54.9%75.4%93.2%78.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0085.6%54.9%75.4%93.2%78.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:0085.6%54.9%75.4%93.2%78.2%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:0092.8%54.9%75.4%93.2%82.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:0092.8%54.9%75.4%93.2%82.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:0092.8%54.9%75.4%93.2%82.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0092.8%54.9%75.4%93.2%82.3%
2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:0092.8%85.8%74.7%93.2%82.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:0092.8%85.8%74.7%93.2%82.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0092.8%85.8%74.7%93.2%82.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0092.8%85.8%74.7%93.2%82.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:0092.9%85.8%74.7%93.2%82.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES93%82.3°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single93%80.4°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble86%77.2°F4.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON82%79.1°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 275%75.6°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%73.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend47%72.0°F6.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261026-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗