KSMF / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

93%

82%

82%

75%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 84.0¢Risks 41.98u

WN2NO 16.0¢Risks 8.02u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +8.02u · WN2 −8.02u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	75.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	31.3%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	82.0%	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	5.9%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	93.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	0.7%	93.0%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	88.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	71.4%	79.6%	0.5%	—	54.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	77.4%	70.9%	86.5%	70.9%	18.9%	75.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	88.5%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	93%	82.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	80.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	82%	79.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	76.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	75.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261026-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗