KSTL / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD
St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 90°F
FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 01 · 06:57 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD
Who takes which side?
Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.
Head-to-head preview
ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.
AIFS +71.50u · ICON −71.50u
These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →
FOLLOW THE RUNS
Probability history
Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
View the forecast data
| UTC | AIFS | EPS | WN2 | HRES | ICON |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24T07:28:00+00:00 | 64.7% | 2.6% | 9.1% | 34.1% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-24T08:13:28+00:00 | 64.7% | 2.6% | 9.1% | 34.1% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-24T08:58:38+00:00 | 64.7% | 2.6% | 9.1% | 34.1% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-24T09:43:42+00:00 | 64.7% | 2.6% | 9.1% | 34.1% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-24T10:28:47+00:00 | 64.7% | 2.6% | 9.1% | 34.1% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-24T11:13:53+00:00 | 64.7% | 16.4% | 7.4% | 34.1% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-24T11:58:59+00:00 | 64.7% | 16.4% | 7.4% | 34.1% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-24T12:44:03+00:00 | 64.7% | 16.4% | 7.4% | 34.1% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-24T13:29:19+00:00 | 65.4% | 16.4% | 7.4% | 34.1% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-24T14:16:42+00:00 | 64.7% | 16.7% | 7.5% | 34.2% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-24T15:02:00+00:00 | 64.7% | 15.9% | 7.5% | 34.2% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-24T15:47:19+00:00 | 64.7% | 15.6% | 7.5% | 34.2% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-24T16:32:29+00:00 | 64.7% | 15.6% | 7.5% | 34.2% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-24T17:17:34+00:00 | 64.7% | 15.6% | 20.5% | 34.2% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-24T18:02:40+00:00 | 64.7% | 15.6% | 20.5% | 34.2% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-24T18:47:44+00:00 | 64.7% | 15.6% | 20.5% | 34.2% | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-24T19:32:55+00:00 | 78.0% | 15.6% | 20.5% | 34.2% | 17.4% |
| 2026-09-24T20:18:02+00:00 | 78.0% | 15.6% | 20.5% | 34.2% | 17.4% |
| 2026-09-24T21:03:08+00:00 | 78.0% | 15.6% | 20.5% | 34.2% | 17.4% |
| 2026-09-24T21:48:13+00:00 | 78.0% | 15.6% | 20.5% | 34.2% | 17.4% |
| 2026-09-24T22:33:18+00:00 | 78.0% | 15.6% | 20.5% | 0.5% | 17.4% |
| 2026-09-24T23:18:26+00:00 | 78.0% | 15.6% | 28.9% | 0.5% | 17.4% |
| 2026-09-25T00:03:31+00:00 | 78.0% | 15.6% | 28.9% | 0.5% | 17.4% |
| 2026-09-25T00:48:45+00:00 | 78.0% | 15.6% | 28.9% | 0.5% | 17.4% |
| 2026-09-25T01:33:53+00:00 | 75.2% | 15.6% | 28.9% | 0.5% | 17.4% |
| 2026-09-25T02:19:00+00:00 | 75.2% | 15.6% | 28.9% | 0.5% | 17.4% |
| 2026-09-25T03:04:28+00:00 | 75.2% | 15.6% | 28.9% | 0.5% | 17.4% |
| 2026-09-25T03:49:46+00:00 | 75.2% | 15.6% | 28.9% | 0.5% | 17.4% |
| 2026-09-25T04:34:51+00:00 | 75.2% | 15.6% | 28.9% | 0.5% | 10.2% |
| 2026-09-25T05:19:59+00:00 | 75.2% | 15.6% | 31.1% | 0.5% | 10.2% |
| 2026-09-25T06:05:06+00:00 | 75.2% | 15.6% | 31.1% | 0.5% | 10.2% |
| 2026-09-25T06:50:11+00:00 | 75.2% | 15.6% | 31.1% | 0.5% | 10.2% |
| 2026-09-25T07:35:19+00:00 | 63.9% | 15.6% | 31.1% | 0.5% | 10.2% |
| 2026-09-25T08:20:25+00:00 | 63.9% | 15.6% | 31.1% | 0.5% | 10.2% |
| 2026-09-25T09:05:31+00:00 | 63.9% | 15.6% | 31.1% | 0.5% | 10.2% |
| 2026-09-25T09:50:35+00:00 | 63.9% | 15.6% | 31.1% | 0.5% | 10.2% |
| 2026-09-25T10:35:41+00:00 | 63.9% | 15.6% | 31.1% | 0.5% | 10.2% |
| 2026-09-25T11:20:47+00:00 | 63.9% | 18.8% | 31.1% | 0.5% | 10.2% |
| 2026-09-25T12:05:53+00:00 | 63.9% | 18.8% | 31.1% | 0.5% | 10.2% |
| 2026-09-25T12:50:58+00:00 | 63.9% | 18.8% | 31.1% | 0.5% | 10.2% |
| 2026-09-25T13:36:05+00:00 | 68.0% | 18.8% | 31.1% | 0.5% | 10.2% |
| 2026-09-25T14:23:07+00:00 | 68.0% | 19.1% | 31.1% | 0.5% | 10.1% |
| 2026-09-25T15:08:12+00:00 | 68.0% | 17.8% | 31.1% | 0.5% | 10.1% |
| 2026-09-25T15:53:18+00:00 | 68.0% | 17.8% | 31.1% | 0.5% | 10.1% |
| 2026-09-25T16:38:24+00:00 | 68.0% | 17.8% | 31.1% | 0.5% | 51.2% |
| 2026-09-25T17:23:32+00:00 | 68.0% | 17.8% | 43.9% | 0.5% | 51.2% |
| 2026-09-25T18:08:56+00:00 | 68.0% | 17.8% | 43.9% | 0.5% | 51.2% |
| 2026-09-25T18:54:08+00:00 | 68.0% | 17.8% | 43.9% | 0.5% | 51.2% |
| 2026-09-25T19:39:47+00:00 | 10.8% | 17.8% | 43.9% | 35.9% | 51.2% |
| 2026-09-25T20:25:18+00:00 | 10.8% | 17.8% | 43.9% | 35.9% | 51.2% |
| 2026-09-25T21:10:24+00:00 | 10.8% | 17.8% | 43.9% | 35.9% | 51.2% |
| 2026-09-25T21:55:29+00:00 | 10.8% | 17.8% | 43.9% | 35.9% | 51.2% |
| 2026-09-25T22:40:34+00:00 | 10.8% | 17.8% | 43.9% | 35.9% | 51.2% |
| 2026-09-25T23:25:39+00:00 | 10.8% | 17.8% | 22.7% | 35.9% | 51.2% |
| 2026-09-26T00:10:45+00:00 | 10.8% | 17.8% | 22.7% | 35.9% | 51.2% |
| 2026-09-26T00:55:55+00:00 | 10.8% | 17.8% | 22.7% | 35.9% | 51.2% |
| 2026-09-26T01:41:06+00:00 | 0.2% | 17.8% | 22.7% | 35.9% | 51.2% |
| 2026-09-26T02:26:27+00:00 | 0.2% | 17.8% | 22.7% | 35.9% | 51.2% |
| 2026-09-26T03:11:47+00:00 | 0.2% | 17.8% | 22.7% | 35.9% | 51.2% |
| 2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00 | 0.2% | 17.8% | 22.7% | 35.9% | 51.2% |
| 2026-09-26T04:42:10+00:00 | 0.2% | 17.8% | 22.7% | 35.9% | 18.7% |
| 2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00 | 0.2% | 17.8% | 16.6% | 35.9% | 18.7% |
| 2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00 | 0.2% | 17.8% | 16.6% | 35.9% | 18.7% |
| 2026-09-26T06:57:32+00:00 | 0.2% | 17.8% | 16.6% | 35.9% | 18.7% |
| 2026-09-26T07:43:09+00:00 | 51.6% | 17.8% | 16.6% | 41.8% | 18.7% |
| 2026-09-26T08:28:41+00:00 | 51.6% | 17.8% | 16.6% | 41.8% | 18.7% |
| 2026-09-26T09:13:47+00:00 | 51.6% | 17.8% | 16.6% | 41.8% | 18.7% |
| 2026-09-26T09:58:53+00:00 | 51.6% | 17.8% | 16.6% | 41.8% | 18.7% |
| 2026-09-26T10:44:06+00:00 | 51.6% | 17.8% | 16.6% | 41.8% | 18.7% |
| 2026-09-26T11:29:21+00:00 | 51.6% | 17.5% | 26.8% | 41.8% | 18.7% |
| 2026-09-26T12:14:31+00:00 | 51.6% | 17.5% | 26.8% | 41.8% | 18.7% |
| 2026-09-26T12:59:37+00:00 | 51.6% | 17.5% | 26.8% | 41.8% | 18.7% |
| 2026-09-26T13:44:47+00:00 | 61.9% | 17.5% | 26.8% | 41.8% | 18.7% |
| 2026-09-26T14:32:14+00:00 | 61.9% | 17.5% | 26.8% | 41.8% | 18.6% |
| 2026-09-26T15:17:31+00:00 | 61.9% | 16.8% | 26.8% | 41.8% | 18.6% |
| 2026-09-26T16:02:37+00:00 | 61.9% | 16.8% | 26.8% | 41.8% | 18.6% |
| 2026-09-26T16:47:44+00:00 | 61.9% | 16.8% | 26.8% | 41.8% | 31.6% |
| 2026-09-26T17:32:52+00:00 | 61.9% | 16.8% | 26.8% | 41.8% | 31.6% |
| 2026-09-26T18:18:02+00:00 | 61.9% | 16.8% | 26.8% | 41.8% | 31.6% |
| 2026-09-26T19:03:09+00:00 | 61.9% | 16.8% | 26.8% | 41.8% | 31.6% |
| 2026-09-26T19:48:20+00:00 | 48.4% | 16.8% | 26.8% | 29.7% | 31.6% |
| 2026-09-26T20:33:28+00:00 | 48.4% | 16.8% | 26.8% | 29.7% | 31.6% |
| 2026-09-26T21:18:34+00:00 | 48.4% | 16.8% | 26.8% | 29.7% | 31.6% |
| 2026-09-26T22:03:39+00:00 | 48.4% | 16.8% | 26.8% | 29.7% | 31.6% |
| 2026-09-26T22:48:48+00:00 | 48.4% | 16.8% | 26.8% | 29.7% | 31.6% |
| 2026-09-26T23:33:57+00:00 | 48.4% | 16.8% | 28.4% | 29.7% | 31.6% |
| 2026-09-27T00:19:04+00:00 | 48.4% | 16.8% | 28.4% | 29.7% | 31.6% |
| 2026-09-27T01:04:13+00:00 | 48.4% | 16.8% | 28.4% | 29.7% | 31.6% |
| 2026-09-27T01:49:27+00:00 | 32.1% | 16.8% | 28.4% | 29.7% | 31.6% |
| 2026-09-27T02:34:33+00:00 | 32.1% | 16.8% | 28.4% | 29.7% | 31.6% |
| 2026-09-27T03:19:53+00:00 | 32.1% | 16.8% | 28.4% | 29.7% | 31.6% |
| 2026-09-27T04:05:15+00:00 | 32.1% | 16.8% | 28.4% | 29.7% | 31.6% |
| 2026-09-27T04:50:21+00:00 | 32.1% | 16.8% | 28.4% | 29.7% | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-27T05:35:31+00:00 | 32.1% | 16.8% | 23.0% | 29.7% | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-27T06:20:39+00:00 | 32.1% | 16.8% | 23.0% | 29.7% | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-27T07:05:45+00:00 | 32.1% | 16.8% | 23.0% | 29.7% | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-27T07:51:20+00:00 | 61.0% | 16.8% | 23.0% | 64.7% | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-27T08:36:55+00:00 | 61.0% | 16.8% | 23.0% | 64.7% | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-27T09:22:00+00:00 | 61.0% | 16.8% | 23.0% | 64.7% | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-27T10:07:05+00:00 | 61.0% | 16.8% | 23.0% | 64.7% | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-27T10:52:11+00:00 | 61.0% | 16.8% | 23.0% | 64.7% | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-27T11:37:19+00:00 | 61.0% | 33.2% | 42.0% | 64.7% | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-27T12:22:27+00:00 | 61.0% | 33.2% | 42.0% | 64.7% | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-27T13:07:34+00:00 | 61.0% | 33.2% | 42.0% | 64.7% | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-27T13:52:45+00:00 | 50.9% | 33.2% | 42.0% | 64.7% | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-27T14:40:13+00:00 | 50.9% | 33.2% | 42.0% | 64.7% | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-27T15:25:30+00:00 | 50.9% | 31.9% | 42.0% | 64.7% | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-27T16:10:35+00:00 | 50.9% | 31.9% | 42.0% | 64.7% | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-27T16:55:42+00:00 | 50.9% | 31.9% | 22.3% | 64.7% | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-27T17:40:49+00:00 | 50.9% | 31.9% | 22.3% | 64.7% | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-27T18:26:02+00:00 | 50.9% | 31.9% | 22.3% | 64.7% | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00 | 50.9% | 31.9% | 22.3% | 64.7% | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-27T19:56:20+00:00 | 67.5% | 31.9% | 22.3% | 49.2% | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-27T20:41:29+00:00 | 67.5% | 31.9% | 22.3% | 49.2% | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-27T21:26:33+00:00 | 67.5% | 31.9% | 22.3% | 49.2% | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-27T22:11:37+00:00 | 67.5% | 31.9% | 22.3% | 49.2% | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-27T22:56:46+00:00 | 67.5% | 31.9% | 30.6% | 49.2% | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-27T23:41:51+00:00 | 67.5% | 31.9% | 30.6% | 49.2% | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-28T00:26:57+00:00 | 67.5% | 31.9% | 30.6% | 49.2% | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-28T01:12:05+00:00 | 67.5% | 31.9% | 30.6% | 49.2% | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-28T01:57:13+00:00 | 70.5% | 31.9% | 30.6% | 49.2% | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-28T02:42:18+00:00 | 70.5% | 31.9% | 30.6% | 49.2% | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-28T03:27:47+00:00 | 70.5% | 31.9% | 30.6% | 49.2% | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-28T04:13:30+00:00 | 70.5% | 31.9% | 30.6% | 49.2% | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-28T04:58:36+00:00 | 70.5% | 31.9% | 57.1% | 49.2% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-28T05:43:47+00:00 | 70.5% | 31.9% | 57.1% | 49.2% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-28T06:28:57+00:00 | 70.5% | 31.9% | 57.1% | 49.2% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-28T07:14:01+00:00 | 70.5% | 31.9% | 57.1% | 49.2% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-28T07:59:40+00:00 | 65.1% | 31.9% | 57.1% | 36.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-28T08:45:29+00:00 | 65.1% | 31.9% | 57.1% | 36.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-28T09:30:35+00:00 | 65.1% | 31.9% | 57.1% | 36.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-28T10:15:40+00:00 | 65.1% | 31.9% | 57.1% | 36.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-28T11:00:53+00:00 | 65.1% | 28.3% | 57.5% | 36.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-28T11:46:07+00:00 | 65.1% | 28.3% | 57.5% | 36.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-28T12:31:13+00:00 | 65.1% | 28.3% | 57.5% | 36.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-28T13:16:23+00:00 | 65.1% | 28.3% | 57.5% | 36.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-28T14:01:29+00:00 | 62.6% | 28.3% | 57.5% | 36.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-28T14:48:45+00:00 | 62.6% | 28.3% | 57.5% | 36.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-28T15:34:04+00:00 | 62.6% | 28.3% | 57.5% | 36.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-28T16:19:10+00:00 | 62.6% | 28.3% | 57.5% | 36.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-28T17:04:15+00:00 | 62.6% | 28.3% | 51.1% | 36.1% | 2.9% |
| 2026-09-28T17:49:24+00:00 | 62.6% | 28.3% | 51.1% | 36.1% | 2.9% |
| 2026-09-28T18:34:29+00:00 | 62.6% | 28.3% | 51.1% | 36.1% | 2.9% |
| 2026-09-28T19:19:35+00:00 | 62.6% | 28.3% | 51.1% | 36.1% | 2.9% |
| 2026-09-28T20:04:46+00:00 | 64.3% | 28.3% | 51.1% | 38.6% | 2.9% |
| 2026-09-28T20:49:51+00:00 | 64.3% | 28.3% | 51.1% | 38.6% | 2.9% |
| 2026-09-28T21:34:55+00:00 | 64.3% | 28.3% | 51.1% | 38.6% | 2.9% |
| 2026-09-28T22:19:59+00:00 | 64.3% | 28.3% | 51.1% | 38.6% | 2.9% |
| 2026-09-28T23:05:05+00:00 | 64.3% | 28.3% | 58.6% | 38.6% | 2.9% |
| 2026-09-28T23:50:12+00:00 | 64.3% | 28.3% | 58.6% | 38.6% | 2.9% |
| 2026-09-29T00:35:19+00:00 | 64.3% | 28.3% | 58.6% | 38.6% | 2.9% |
| 2026-09-29T01:20:29+00:00 | 64.3% | 28.3% | 58.6% | 38.6% | 2.9% |
| 2026-09-29T02:05:47+00:00 | 68.5% | 28.3% | 58.6% | 38.6% | 2.9% |
| 2026-09-29T02:51:02+00:00 | 68.5% | 28.3% | 58.6% | 38.6% | 2.9% |
| 2026-09-29T03:36:07+00:00 | 68.5% | 28.3% | 58.6% | 38.6% | 2.9% |
| 2026-09-29T04:21:33+00:00 | 68.5% | 28.3% | 58.6% | 38.6% | 3.1% |
| 2026-09-29T05:06:56+00:00 | 68.5% | 28.3% | 67.7% | 38.6% | 3.1% |
| 2026-09-29T05:52:04+00:00 | 68.5% | 28.3% | 67.7% | 38.6% | 3.1% |
| 2026-09-29T06:37:11+00:00 | 68.5% | 28.3% | 67.7% | 38.6% | 3.1% |
| 2026-09-29T07:22:40+00:00 | 64.0% | 28.3% | 67.7% | 46.1% | 3.1% |
| 2026-09-29T08:08:18+00:00 | 64.0% | 28.3% | 67.7% | 46.1% | 3.1% |
| 2026-09-29T08:53:33+00:00 | 64.0% | 28.3% | 67.7% | 46.1% | 3.1% |
| 2026-09-29T09:38:38+00:00 | 64.0% | 28.3% | 67.7% | 46.1% | 3.1% |
| 2026-09-29T10:23:44+00:00 | 64.0% | 28.3% | 67.7% | 46.1% | 3.1% |
| 2026-09-29T11:08:57+00:00 | 64.0% | 30.8% | 67.7% | 46.1% | 3.1% |
| 2026-09-29T11:54:07+00:00 | 64.0% | 30.8% | 67.7% | 46.1% | 3.1% |
| 2026-09-29T12:39:12+00:00 | 64.0% | 30.8% | 67.7% | 46.1% | 3.1% |
| 2026-09-29T13:24:17+00:00 | 55.7% | 30.8% | 67.7% | 46.1% | 3.1% |
| 2026-09-29T14:11:42+00:00 | 54.8% | 30.8% | 67.7% | 46.1% | 3.0% |
| 2026-09-29T14:57:00+00:00 | 54.8% | 31.5% | 67.7% | 46.1% | 3.0% |
| 2026-09-29T15:42:22+00:00 | 54.8% | 31.5% | 67.7% | 46.1% | 3.0% |
| 2026-09-29T16:27:43+00:00 | 54.8% | 31.5% | 67.7% | 46.1% | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-29T17:12:52+00:00 | 54.8% | 31.5% | 56.7% | 46.1% | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-29T17:58:00+00:00 | 54.8% | 31.5% | 56.7% | 46.1% | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-29T18:43:07+00:00 | 54.8% | 31.5% | 56.7% | 46.1% | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-29T19:28:15+00:00 | 51.0% | 31.5% | 56.7% | 23.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-29T20:13:38+00:00 | 51.0% | 31.5% | 56.7% | 23.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-29T20:58:49+00:00 | 51.0% | 31.5% | 56.7% | 23.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-29T21:43:57+00:00 | 51.0% | 31.5% | 56.7% | 23.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-29T22:29:03+00:00 | 51.0% | 31.5% | 56.7% | 23.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-29T23:14:19+00:00 | 51.0% | 31.5% | 50.0% | 23.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-29T23:59:28+00:00 | 51.0% | 31.5% | 50.0% | 23.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-30T00:44:34+00:00 | 51.0% | 31.5% | 50.0% | 23.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-30T01:29:53+00:00 | 59.5% | 31.5% | 50.0% | 23.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-30T02:15:01+00:00 | 59.5% | 31.5% | 50.0% | 23.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-30T03:00:13+00:00 | 59.5% | 31.5% | 50.0% | 23.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-30T03:45:23+00:00 | 59.5% | 31.5% | 50.0% | 23.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-30T04:30:51+00:00 | 59.5% | 31.5% | 50.0% | 23.3% | 2.3% |
| 2026-09-30T05:16:22+00:00 | 59.5% | 31.5% | 66.4% | 23.3% | 2.3% |
| 2026-09-30T06:01:29+00:00 | 59.5% | 31.5% | 66.4% | 23.3% | 2.3% |
| 2026-09-30T06:46:38+00:00 | 59.5% | 31.5% | 66.4% | 23.3% | 2.3% |
| 2026-09-30T07:32:17+00:00 | 59.5% | 31.5% | 66.4% | 57.4% | 2.3% |
| 2026-09-30T08:18:17+00:00 | 59.5% | 31.5% | 66.4% | 57.4% | 2.3% |
| 2026-09-30T09:03:36+00:00 | 59.5% | 31.5% | 66.4% | 57.4% | 2.3% |
| 2026-09-30T09:48:42+00:00 | 59.5% | 31.5% | 66.4% | 57.4% | 2.3% |
| 2026-09-30T10:34:52+00:00 | 69.0% | 31.5% | 66.4% | 57.4% | 2.3% |
| 2026-09-30T11:20:04+00:00 | 69.0% | 41.6% | 63.7% | 57.4% | 2.3% |
| 2026-09-30T12:05:15+00:00 | 69.0% | 41.6% | 63.7% | 57.4% | 2.3% |
| 2026-09-30T12:50:21+00:00 | 69.0% | 41.6% | 63.7% | 57.4% | 2.3% |
| 2026-09-30T13:35:31+00:00 | 60.7% | 41.6% | 63.7% | 57.4% | 2.3% |
| 2026-09-30T14:23:10+00:00 | 60.7% | 41.6% | 63.6% | 57.4% | 2.3% |
| 2026-09-30T15:08:16+00:00 | 60.7% | 42.7% | 63.6% | 57.4% | 2.3% |
| 2026-09-30T15:53:35+00:00 | 60.7% | 42.7% | 63.6% | 57.4% | 2.3% |
| 2026-09-30T16:38:51+00:00 | 60.7% | 42.7% | 63.6% | 57.4% | 1.1% |
| 2026-09-30T17:23:58+00:00 | 60.7% | 42.7% | 41.9% | 57.4% | 1.1% |
| 2026-09-30T18:09:06+00:00 | 60.7% | 42.7% | 41.9% | 57.4% | 1.1% |
| 2026-09-30T18:54:14+00:00 | 60.7% | 42.7% | 41.9% | 57.4% | 1.1% |
| 2026-09-30T19:39:22+00:00 | 54.9% | 42.7% | 41.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| 2026-09-30T20:24:34+00:00 | 54.9% | 42.7% | 41.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| 2026-09-30T21:09:40+00:00 | 54.9% | 42.7% | 41.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| 2026-09-30T21:54:45+00:00 | 54.9% | 42.7% | 41.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| 2026-09-30T22:39:51+00:00 | 54.9% | 42.7% | 41.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| 2026-09-30T23:24:56+00:00 | 54.9% | 42.7% | 35.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| 2026-10-01T00:10:26+00:00 | 54.9% | 42.7% | 35.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| 2026-10-01T00:55:51+00:00 | 54.9% | 42.7% | 35.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| 2026-10-01T01:40:57+00:00 | 55.9% | 42.7% | 35.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| 2026-10-01T02:26:04+00:00 | 55.9% | 42.7% | 35.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| 2026-10-01T03:11:35+00:00 | 55.9% | 42.7% | 35.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| 2026-10-01T03:57:04+00:00 | 55.9% | 42.7% | 35.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| 2026-10-01T04:42:09+00:00 | 55.9% | 42.7% | 35.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| 2026-10-01T05:27:14+00:00 | 55.9% | 42.7% | 48.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| 2026-10-01T06:12:20+00:00 | 55.9% | 42.7% | 48.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| 2026-10-01T06:57:25+00:00 | 55.9% | 42.7% | 48.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
THE MODEL BOX SCORE
Forecasts & evidence
| MODEL | YES | MEAN | SPREAD σ | INITIALIZATION UTC | BRIER ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIFS Single | 56% | 90.1°F | 4.0°F | 2026-09-30 18:00 | 0.1945 |
| WeatherNext 2 | 49% | 89.4°F | 3.4°F | 2026-09-30 18:00 | 0.2621 |
| IFS Ensemble | 43% | 88.8°F | 3.8°F | 2026-09-30 00:00 | 0.3283 |
| National Blend | 29% | 87.1°F | 4.4°F | 2026-10-01 00:00 | 0.4984 |
| NWS forecast | 6% | 86.0°F | 2.2°F | 2026-10-01 02:00 | 0.8911 |
| IFS HRES | 2% | 82.0°F | 3.7°F | 2026-09-30 12:00 | 0.9565 |
| ICON | 1% | 81.4°F | 3.5°F | 2026-09-30 12:00 | 0.9781 |
Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.
High ≥ 90°F · KSTL
Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.
WP-KSTL-20261001-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 24 · 07:28 UTC
Original listing: A 90° day in St. Louis · Thu Oct 1
Original prop, full history & receipt ↗