KSTL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≤ 56°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

32%

20%

14%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 28.7¢Risks 28.65u

EPSNO 71.4¢Risks 71.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +71.35u · EPS −71.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:43+00:00	18.7%	1.2%	7.8%	22.4%	11.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	18.7%	1.2%	7.8%	22.4%	11.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	18.7%	1.2%	7.8%	22.4%	11.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	18.7%	1.2%	7.8%	22.4%	11.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:21+00:00	18.7%	0.8%	17.4%	22.4%	11.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	18.7%	0.8%	17.4%	22.4%	11.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	18.7%	0.8%	17.4%	22.4%	11.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	18.7%	0.8%	17.4%	22.4%	11.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	23.0%	0.8%	17.3%	22.4%	11.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	23.0%	0.8%	17.3%	22.4%	11.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:39+00:00	23.0%	0.8%	17.3%	22.4%	11.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	23.0%	0.8%	17.3%	22.4%	11.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	23.0%	0.8%	15.4%	22.4%	11.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	23.0%	0.8%	15.4%	22.4%	11.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	23.0%	0.8%	15.4%	22.4%	11.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	21.1%	0.8%	15.4%	22.4%	16.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	21.1%	0.8%	15.4%	22.4%	16.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	21.1%	0.8%	15.4%	22.4%	16.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	21.1%	0.8%	15.4%	22.4%	16.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	21.1%	0.8%	15.4%	37.4%	16.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	21.1%	0.8%	19.5%	37.4%	16.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	21.1%	0.8%	19.5%	37.4%	16.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	21.1%	0.8%	19.5%	37.4%	16.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	28.6%	0.8%	19.5%	37.4%	16.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	28.6%	0.8%	19.5%	37.4%	16.5%
2026-10-14T02:59:54+00:00	28.6%	0.8%	19.5%	37.4%	16.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00	28.6%	0.8%	19.5%	37.4%	16.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	28.6%	0.8%	19.5%	37.4%	16.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	28.6%	0.8%	19.5%	37.4%	16.5%
2026-10-14T06:01:00+00:00	28.6%	0.8%	19.5%	37.4%	16.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	28.6%	0.8%	19.5%	37.4%	16.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	25.0%	0.8%	19.5%	37.4%	31.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:38+00:00	25.0%	0.8%	19.5%	37.4%	31.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	25.0%	0.8%	19.5%	37.4%	31.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	25.0%	0.8%	19.5%	37.4%	31.6%
2026-10-14T10:33:39+00:00	25.0%	0.8%	19.5%	36.9%	31.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:54+00:00	25.0%	1.0%	17.9%	36.9%	31.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	25.0%	1.0%	17.9%	36.9%	31.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	25.0%	1.0%	17.9%	36.9%	31.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	21.5%	1.0%	17.9%	36.9%	31.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	21.4%	1.0%	17.9%	36.9%	31.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:23+00:00	21.4%	1.1%	17.9%	36.9%	31.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	21.4%	1.1%	17.9%	36.9%	31.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	21.4%	1.1%	17.9%	36.9%	31.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	21.4%	1.1%	18.7%	36.9%	31.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	21.4%	1.1%	18.7%	36.9%	31.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:28+00:00	21.4%	1.1%	18.7%	36.9%	31.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	18.8%	1.1%	18.7%	36.0%	29.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	18.8%	1.1%	18.7%	36.0%	29.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	18.8%	1.1%	18.7%	36.0%	29.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	18.8%	1.1%	18.7%	36.0%	29.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	18.8%	1.1%	18.7%	36.0%	29.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	18.8%	1.1%	19.5%	36.0%	29.8%
2026-10-15T00:14:55+00:00	18.8%	1.1%	19.5%	36.0%	29.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	18.8%	1.1%	19.5%	36.0%	29.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	20.1%	1.1%	19.5%	36.0%	29.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	20.1%	1.1%	19.5%	36.0%	29.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	20.1%	1.1%	19.5%	36.0%	29.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:18+00:00	20.1%	1.1%	19.5%	36.0%	29.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	20.1%	1.1%	19.5%	36.0%	29.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	20.1%	1.1%	20.3%	36.0%	29.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	20.1%	1.1%	20.3%	36.0%	29.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	20.1%	1.1%	20.3%	36.0%	29.8%
2026-10-15T07:49:56+00:00	18.9%	1.1%	20.3%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	18.9%	1.1%	20.3%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	18.9%	1.1%	20.3%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00	18.9%	1.1%	20.3%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:28+00:00	18.9%	1.1%	20.3%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	18.9%	1.1%	18.3%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	18.9%	1.9%	18.3%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:27+00:00	18.9%	1.9%	18.3%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	15.7%	2.1%	18.3%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	15.7%	2.1%	18.3%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:19+00:00	15.7%	2.4%	18.3%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	15.7%	2.4%	18.3%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	15.7%	2.4%	15.1%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:47+00:00	15.7%	2.4%	15.1%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	15.7%	2.4%	15.1%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	15.7%	2.4%	15.1%	36.6%	37.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	17.5%	2.4%	15.1%	37.6%	40.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:31+00:00	17.5%	2.4%	15.1%	37.6%	40.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	17.5%	2.4%	15.1%	37.6%	40.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	17.5%	2.4%	15.1%	37.6%	40.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	17.5%	2.4%	15.9%	37.6%	40.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	17.5%	2.4%	15.9%	37.6%	40.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	17.5%	2.4%	15.9%	37.6%	40.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	19.5%	2.4%	15.9%	37.6%	40.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	19.5%	2.4%	15.9%	37.6%	40.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	19.5%	2.4%	15.9%	37.6%	40.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	19.5%	2.4%	15.9%	37.6%	40.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:23+00:00	19.5%	2.4%	15.9%	37.6%	40.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	19.5%	2.4%	17.5%	37.6%	40.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	19.5%	2.4%	17.5%	37.6%	40.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	19.5%	2.4%	17.5%	37.6%	40.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	17.5%	2.4%	17.5%	37.6%	55.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	17.5%	2.4%	17.5%	37.6%	55.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	17.5%	2.4%	17.5%	37.6%	55.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	17.5%	2.4%	17.5%	37.6%	55.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	17.5%	2.4%	17.5%	37.6%	55.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:21+00:00	17.5%	1.9%	14.3%	37.6%	55.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	17.5%	1.9%	14.3%	37.6%	55.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	17.5%	1.9%	14.3%	37.6%	55.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:42+00:00	16.2%	1.9%	14.3%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	16.2%	2.0%	14.3%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	16.2%	1.7%	14.3%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	16.2%	1.7%	14.3%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	16.2%	1.7%	14.3%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	16.2%	1.7%	13.6%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	16.2%	1.7%	13.6%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	16.2%	1.7%	13.6%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:05+00:00	17.4%	1.7%	13.6%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:36+00:00	17.4%	1.7%	13.6%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	17.4%	1.7%	13.6%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	17.4%	1.7%	13.6%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	17.4%	1.7%	13.6%	32.4%	55.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	17.4%	1.7%	15.1%	32.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	17.4%	1.7%	15.1%	32.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	17.4%	1.7%	15.1%	32.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	20.2%	1.7%	15.1%	32.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:22+00:00	20.2%	1.7%	15.1%	32.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	20.2%	1.7%	15.1%	32.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:40+00:00	20.2%	1.7%	15.1%	32.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T04:41:57+00:00	20.2%	1.7%	15.1%	32.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	20.2%	1.7%	14.3%	32.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	20.2%	1.7%	14.3%	32.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	20.2%	1.7%	14.3%	32.4%	55.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	56%	56.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3091
IFS HRES	32%	58.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1050
AIFS Single	20%	59.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0408
WeatherNext 2	14%	59.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0204
National Blend	13%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0174
NWS forecast	12%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0137
IFS Ensemble	2%	63.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0003

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 56°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261017-TMAX-LE56
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 56°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗