KSTL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≤ 56°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

32%

20%

14%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 28.7¢Risks 28.65u

EPSNO 71.4¢Risks 71.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +71.35u · EPS −71.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	78.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	17.3%	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	69.3%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	83.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	85.2%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	70.6%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	59.1%	99.0%	53.5%	—	18.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	96.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	97.7%	7.4%	—	27.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	30.3%	65.6%	18.9%	—	26.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	18.9%	28.1%	35.2%	—	21.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	11.2%	15.2%	18.9%	—	24.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	22.6%	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	17.2%	10.1%	40.5%	—	27.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	11.6%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	23.7%	6.1%	51.8%	—	37.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	34.3%	5.1%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	38.5%	4.6%	46.1%	—	44.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	32.6%	4.7%	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	35.9%	6.1%	35.9%	—	45.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	42.6%	8.0%	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	35.1%	12.5%	41.3%	99.8%	48.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	36.7%	11.8%	98.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	36.3%	13.4%	59.2%	—	45.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.4%	41.6%	14.5%	63.0%	—	98.7%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	40.1%	12.4%	61.1%	59.9%	36.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	44.9%	12.8%	53.9%	—	39.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	39.4%	10.1%	55.4%	60.6%	42.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	39.0%	8.1%	62.3%	—	43.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.2%	44.2%	3.2%	55.8%	44.2%	44.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	45.5%	3.2%	59.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	46.8%	3.4%	59.4%	39.1%	53.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	40.2%	4.1%	51.6%	—	45.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	56%	56.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3091
IFS HRES	32%	58.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1050
AIFS Single	20%	59.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0408
WeatherNext 2	14%	59.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0204
National Blend	13%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0174
NWS forecast	12%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0137
IFS Ensemble	2%	63.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0003

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 56°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261017-TMAX-LE56
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 56°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗