KSTL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

48%

33%

23%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 32.6¢Risks 32.65u

ICONNO 67.3¢Risks 67.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +67.35u · ICON −67.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:17+00:00	21.5%	69.9%	66.8%	91.0%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	21.5%	69.9%	66.8%	91.0%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00	21.5%	69.9%	66.8%	91.0%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	21.5%	69.9%	66.8%	91.0%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:00+00:00	21.5%	69.9%	66.8%	91.0%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:00+00:00	21.5%	58.8%	42.0%	91.0%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00	21.5%	58.8%	42.0%	91.0%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:28+00:00	21.5%	58.8%	42.0%	91.0%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:51+00:00	54.3%	58.8%	42.0%	91.0%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:14+00:00	54.3%	58.8%	42.0%	91.0%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:51+00:00	54.3%	58.2%	42.0%	91.0%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	54.3%	58.2%	42.0%	91.0%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	54.3%	58.2%	42.0%	91.0%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:02+00:00	54.3%	58.2%	45.2%	91.0%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	54.3%	58.2%	45.2%	91.0%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	54.3%	58.2%	45.2%	91.0%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:33+00:00	71.0%	58.2%	45.2%	72.6%	56.5%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	71.0%	58.2%	45.2%	72.6%	56.5%
2026-10-11T21:13:53+00:00	71.0%	58.2%	45.2%	72.6%	56.5%
2026-10-11T21:59:00+00:00	71.0%	58.2%	45.2%	72.6%	56.5%
2026-10-11T22:44:15+00:00	71.0%	58.2%	45.2%	72.6%	56.5%
2026-10-11T23:29:36+00:00	71.0%	58.2%	64.2%	72.6%	56.4%
2026-10-12T00:14:45+00:00	71.0%	58.2%	64.2%	72.6%	56.4%
2026-10-12T01:00:14+00:00	71.0%	58.2%	64.2%	72.6%	56.4%
2026-10-12T01:45:23+00:00	82.8%	58.2%	64.2%	72.6%	56.4%
2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00	82.8%	58.2%	64.2%	72.6%	56.4%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00	82.8%	58.2%	64.2%	72.6%	56.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:19+00:00	60.1%	67.5%	48.8%	26.6%	32.5%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	60.1%	67.5%	48.8%	26.6%	32.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	60.1%	67.5%	50.0%	26.6%	32.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:47+00:00	60.1%	67.5%	50.0%	26.6%	32.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	60.1%	67.5%	50.0%	26.6%	32.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	60.1%	67.5%	50.0%	26.6%	32.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	50.9%	67.5%	50.0%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:31+00:00	50.9%	67.5%	50.0%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	50.9%	67.5%	50.0%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	50.9%	67.5%	50.0%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	50.9%	67.5%	45.3%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	50.9%	67.5%	45.3%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	50.9%	67.5%	45.3%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	50.0%	67.5%	45.3%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	50.0%	67.5%	45.3%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	50.0%	67.5%	45.3%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	50.0%	67.5%	45.3%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-16T04:24:23+00:00	50.0%	67.5%	45.3%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	50.0%	67.5%	46.5%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	50.0%	67.5%	46.5%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	50.0%	67.5%	46.5%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	48.0%	67.5%	46.5%	30.3%	18.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	48.0%	67.5%	46.5%	30.3%	18.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	48.0%	67.5%	46.5%	30.3%	18.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	48.0%	67.5%	46.5%	30.3%	18.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	48.0%	67.5%	46.5%	30.3%	18.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:21+00:00	48.0%	73.2%	38.6%	30.3%	18.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	48.0%	73.2%	38.6%	30.3%	18.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	48.0%	73.2%	38.6%	30.3%	18.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:42+00:00	50.0%	73.2%	38.6%	28.7%	18.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	50.0%	73.1%	38.6%	28.7%	18.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	50.0%	75.1%	38.6%	28.7%	18.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	50.0%	75.1%	38.6%	28.7%	18.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	50.0%	75.1%	38.6%	28.7%	18.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	50.0%	75.1%	41.1%	28.7%	18.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	50.0%	75.1%	41.1%	28.7%	18.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	50.0%	75.1%	41.1%	28.7%	18.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:05+00:00	53.9%	75.1%	41.1%	28.7%	16.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:36+00:00	53.9%	75.1%	41.1%	28.7%	16.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	53.9%	75.1%	41.1%	28.7%	16.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	53.9%	75.1%	41.1%	28.7%	16.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	53.9%	75.1%	41.1%	33.9%	16.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	53.9%	74.2%	43.6%	33.9%	16.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	53.9%	74.2%	43.6%	33.9%	16.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	53.9%	74.2%	43.6%	33.9%	16.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	51.0%	74.2%	43.6%	33.9%	16.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:22+00:00	51.0%	74.2%	43.6%	33.9%	16.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	51.0%	74.2%	43.6%	33.9%	16.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:40+00:00	51.0%	74.2%	43.6%	33.9%	16.8%
2026-10-17T04:41:57+00:00	51.0%	74.2%	43.6%	33.9%	16.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	51.0%	74.2%	48.7%	33.9%	16.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	51.0%	74.2%	48.7%	33.9%	16.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	51.0%	74.2%	48.7%	33.9%	16.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:38+00:00	53.0%	74.2%	48.7%	26.8%	9.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	53.0%	74.2%	48.7%	26.8%	9.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	53.0%	74.2%	48.7%	26.8%	9.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	53.0%	74.2%	48.7%	26.8%	9.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	53.0%	74.2%	48.7%	26.8%	9.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	53.0%	71.6%	40.5%	26.8%	9.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	53.0%	71.6%	40.5%	26.8%	9.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	53.0%	71.6%	40.5%	26.8%	9.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	52.0%	71.6%	40.5%	26.8%	9.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	52.0%	71.2%	40.5%	26.8%	9.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:58+00:00	52.0%	56.7%	40.5%	26.8%	9.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	52.0%	56.7%	40.5%	26.8%	9.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	52.0%	56.7%	35.3%	26.8%	9.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	52.0%	56.7%	35.3%	26.8%	9.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	52.0%	56.7%	35.3%	26.8%	9.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	52.0%	56.7%	35.3%	26.8%	9.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	43.9%	56.7%	35.3%	23.4%	8.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	43.9%	56.7%	35.3%	23.4%	8.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	43.9%	56.7%	35.3%	23.4%	8.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	43.9%	56.7%	35.3%	23.4%	8.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	43.9%	56.7%	32.8%	23.4%	8.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	43.9%	56.7%	32.8%	23.4%	8.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	43.9%	56.7%	32.8%	23.4%	8.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	43.9%	56.7%	32.8%	23.4%	8.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	48.0%	56.7%	32.8%	23.4%	8.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	48.0%	56.7%	32.8%	23.4%	8.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	48.0%	56.7%	32.8%	23.4%	8.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	57%	66.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1875
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
AIFS Single	48%	65.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2704
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.3481
WeatherNext 2	33%	64.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4516
IFS HRES	23%	62.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5868
ICON	9%	60.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.8354

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗