KSTL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

48%

33%

23%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 32.6¢Risks 32.65u

ICONNO 67.3¢Risks 67.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +67.35u · ICON −67.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	1.7%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	53.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	1.9%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	30.5%	44.4%	9.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	78.0%	70.3%	49.3%	—	59.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	67.7%	78.9%	73.0%	—	55.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	54.0%	67.0%	59.5%	—	46.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	54.2%	75.5%	44.2%	—	35.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	33.4%	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	37.9%	85.9%	26.9%	—	20.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	41.1%	85.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	27.4%	81.0%	22.3%	—	16.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	23.8%	78.3%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	27.1%	73.7%	21.8%	—	19.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	29.9%	78.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	24.3%	71.5%	22.7%	—	21.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	19.0%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	21.3%	56.5%	21.3%	—	22.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	19.8%	48.9%	0.1%	—	19.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	18.3%	61.5%	23.3%	—	21.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	19.1%	63.0%	20.8%	—	19.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	15.1%	72.4%	24.6%	17.4%	16.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	12.2%	74.1%	20.9%	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	12.0%	77.0%	18.2%	20.0%	10.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	16.4%	75.8%	20.1%	—	12.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	24.5%	78.8%	26.8%	31.8%	16.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	21.3%	76.4%	18.1%	—	6.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	18.1%	77.4%	12.5%	23.8%	8.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	38.6%	70.5%	22.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	57%	66.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1875
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
AIFS Single	48%	65.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2704
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.3481
WeatherNext 2	33%	64.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4516
IFS HRES	23%	62.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5868
ICON	9%	60.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.8354

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗