KSTL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

43%

42%

27%

17%

14%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 28.7¢Risks 28.75u

HRESNO 71.2¢Risks 71.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +71.25u · HRES −71.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:39+00:00	72.3%	45.6%	48.4%	61.2%	48.4%
2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00	72.3%	45.6%	48.4%	61.2%	48.4%
2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:00	72.3%	45.6%	49.2%	61.2%	48.4%
2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00	72.3%	45.6%	49.2%	61.2%	48.4%
2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00	72.3%	45.6%	49.2%	61.2%	48.4%
2026-10-12T07:48:34+00:00	41.0%	45.6%	49.2%	60.8%	79.2%
2026-10-12T08:34:29+00:00	41.0%	45.6%	49.2%	60.8%	79.2%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	41.0%	45.6%	49.2%	60.8%	79.2%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	41.0%	45.6%	49.2%	60.8%	79.2%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	41.0%	45.6%	49.2%	60.8%	79.2%
2026-10-12T11:35:34+00:00	41.0%	45.6%	57.8%	60.8%	79.2%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	41.0%	51.6%	57.8%	60.8%	79.2%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	41.0%	51.6%	57.8%	60.8%	79.2%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00	53.8%	51.6%	57.8%	60.8%	79.2%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	53.8%	51.5%	57.8%	60.8%	79.2%
2026-10-15T04:02:18+00:00	39.7%	42.5%	27.7%	12.7%	27.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	39.7%	42.5%	27.7%	12.7%	27.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	39.7%	42.5%	30.5%	12.7%	27.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	39.7%	42.5%	30.5%	12.7%	27.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	39.7%	42.5%	30.5%	12.7%	27.4%
2026-10-15T07:49:56+00:00	33.7%	42.5%	30.5%	14.1%	16.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	33.7%	42.5%	30.5%	14.1%	16.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	33.7%	42.5%	30.5%	14.1%	16.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00	33.7%	42.5%	30.5%	14.1%	16.9%
2026-10-15T10:53:28+00:00	33.7%	42.5%	30.5%	14.1%	16.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	33.7%	42.5%	26.7%	14.1%	16.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	33.7%	43.4%	26.7%	14.1%	16.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:27+00:00	33.7%	43.4%	26.7%	14.1%	16.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	41.7%	43.4%	26.7%	14.1%	16.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	41.7%	43.4%	26.7%	14.1%	16.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.3036
IFS Ensemble	43%	67.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1884
AIFS Single	42%	66.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1739
National Blend	33%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1069
WeatherNext 2	27%	65.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0713
ICON	17%	63.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0286
IFS HRES	14%	62.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0199

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗