KSTL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

43%

42%

27%

17%

14%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 28.7¢Risks 28.75u

HRESNO 71.2¢Risks 71.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +71.25u · HRES −71.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	0.8%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	0.8%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	19.4%	31.1%	4.5%	—	36.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	65.7%	56.6%	35.0%	—	44.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	53.0%	66.3%	59.1%	—	40.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	38.2%	51.6%	43.6%	—	30.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	37.7%	60.7%	28.6%	—	21.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	19.6%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	22.8%	73.8%	14.6%	—	10.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	24.9%	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	14.4%	66.1%	11.0%	—	7.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	11.8%	62.1%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	13.6%	55.8%	10.2%	—	8.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	15.2%	60.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	11.3%	52.1%	10.3%	—	9.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	8.0%	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	9.0%	35.1%	9.0%	—	9.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	7.9%	27.6%	0.0%	—	7.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	6.8%	38.5%	9.4%	—	8.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	7.0%	39.3%	7.8%	—	7.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	4.9%	48.8%	9.5%	5.9%	5.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	3.5%	50.0%	7.2%	—	4.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	3.2%	52.7%	5.7%	6.5%	2.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	4.7%	50.0%	6.2%	—	3.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	7.8%	52.9%	8.9%	11.5%	4.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	6.0%	48.5%	4.8%	—	1.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	4.4%	48.4%	2.6%	6.6%	1.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	13.2%	38.6%	5.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.3036
IFS Ensemble	43%	67.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1884
AIFS Single	42%	66.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1739
National Blend	33%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1069
WeatherNext 2	27%	65.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0713
ICON	17%	63.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0286
IFS HRES	14%	62.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0199

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗