KSTL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

16%

11%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 11.1¢Risks 5.55u

HRESNO 88.9¢Risks 44.45u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.45u · HRES −44.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:27:30+00:00	31.9%	29.3%	32.3%	42.7%	65.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	31.9%	30.5%	32.3%	42.7%	65.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	31.9%	30.5%	28.5%	42.7%	65.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	31.9%	30.5%	28.5%	42.7%	65.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	31.9%	30.5%	28.5%	42.7%	65.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	31.9%	30.5%	28.5%	42.7%	65.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	33.2%	30.5%	28.5%	37.4%	55.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	33.2%	30.5%	28.5%	37.4%	55.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	33.2%	30.5%	28.5%	37.4%	55.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	33.2%	30.5%	28.5%	37.4%	55.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	33.2%	30.5%	32.3%	37.4%	55.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	33.2%	30.5%	32.3%	37.4%	55.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	33.2%	30.5%	32.3%	37.4%	55.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	33.2%	30.5%	32.3%	37.4%	55.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	29.9%	30.5%	32.3%	37.4%	55.1%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	29.9%	30.5%	32.3%	37.4%	55.1%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	29.9%	30.5%	32.3%	37.4%	55.1%
2026-10-13T04:16:07+00:00	29.9%	30.5%	32.3%	37.4%	55.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	29.9%	30.5%	31.5%	37.4%	55.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	29.9%	30.5%	31.5%	37.4%	55.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	29.9%	30.5%	31.5%	37.4%	55.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00	29.9%	30.5%	31.5%	37.4%	55.1%
2026-10-13T08:03:43+00:00	25.1%	30.5%	31.5%	27.2%	37.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	25.1%	30.5%	31.5%	27.2%	37.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	25.1%	30.5%	31.5%	27.2%	37.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	25.1%	30.5%	31.5%	27.2%	37.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:21+00:00	25.1%	35.0%	17.6%	27.2%	37.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	25.1%	35.0%	17.6%	27.2%	37.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	25.1%	35.0%	17.6%	27.2%	37.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	25.1%	35.0%	17.6%	27.2%	37.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	23.4%	35.0%	17.8%	27.2%	37.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	23.4%	36.9%	17.8%	27.2%	37.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:39+00:00	23.4%	36.9%	17.8%	27.2%	37.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	23.4%	36.9%	17.8%	27.5%	37.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	23.4%	36.9%	17.8%	27.5%	37.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	23.4%	36.9%	17.8%	27.5%	37.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	23.4%	36.9%	17.8%	27.5%	37.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	24.6%	36.9%	17.8%	27.5%	37.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	24.6%	36.9%	17.8%	27.5%	37.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	24.6%	36.9%	17.8%	27.5%	37.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	24.6%	36.9%	17.8%	27.5%	37.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	24.6%	36.9%	17.8%	19.2%	37.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	24.6%	36.9%	17.2%	18.8%	37.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	24.6%	36.9%	17.2%	18.8%	37.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	24.6%	36.9%	17.2%	18.8%	37.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	16.6%	36.9%	17.2%	18.8%	37.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	16.6%	36.9%	17.2%	18.8%	37.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:54+00:00	16.6%	36.9%	17.2%	18.8%	37.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00	16.6%	36.9%	17.2%	18.8%	37.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	16.6%	36.9%	17.2%	18.8%	37.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	16.6%	36.9%	17.2%	18.8%	37.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:00+00:00	16.6%	36.9%	17.2%	18.8%	37.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	16.6%	36.9%	17.2%	18.8%	37.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	19.2%	36.9%	17.2%	18.8%	16.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:38+00:00	19.2%	36.9%	17.2%	18.8%	16.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	19.2%	36.9%	17.2%	18.8%	16.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	19.2%	36.9%	17.2%	18.8%	16.0%
2026-10-14T10:33:39+00:00	19.2%	36.9%	17.2%	7.5%	16.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:54+00:00	19.2%	15.2%	8.9%	7.5%	16.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	19.2%	15.2%	8.9%	7.5%	16.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	19.2%	15.2%	8.9%	7.5%	16.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	19.2%	15.2%	8.9%	7.5%	16.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	19.2%	15.2%	8.9%	7.5%	16.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:23+00:00	19.2%	15.9%	8.9%	7.5%	16.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	19.2%	15.9%	8.9%	7.5%	16.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	19.2%	15.9%	8.9%	7.5%	16.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	19.2%	15.9%	8.1%	7.5%	16.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	19.2%	15.9%	8.1%	7.5%	16.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:28+00:00	19.2%	15.9%	8.1%	7.5%	16.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	18.1%	15.9%	8.1%	4.1%	11.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	18.1%	15.9%	8.1%	4.1%	11.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	18.1%	15.9%	8.1%	4.1%	11.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	18.1%	15.9%	8.1%	4.1%	11.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	18.1%	15.9%	8.1%	4.1%	11.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	18.1%	15.9%	8.1%	4.1%	11.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:55+00:00	18.1%	15.9%	8.1%	4.1%	11.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	18.1%	15.9%	8.1%	4.1%	11.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	18.1%	15.9%	8.1%	4.1%	11.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	18.1%	15.9%	8.1%	4.1%	11.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	18.1%	15.9%	8.1%	4.1%	11.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
National Blend	32%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1005
AIFS Single	18%	66.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0328
IFS Ensemble	16%	66.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0253
ICON	11%	64.6°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0123
WeatherNext 2	8%	65.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0066
IFS HRES	4%	61.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0017

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗