KSTL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

16%

11%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 11.1¢Risks 5.55u

HRESNO 88.9¢Risks 44.45u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.45u · HRES −44.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	28.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	8.2%	15.3%	1.3%	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	44.2%	35.0%	17.5%	—	24.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	30.9%	43.9%	36.5%	—	20.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	18.4%	28.8%	22.4%	—	13.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	17.3%	36.1%	11.6%	—	7.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	6.7%	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	8.0%	49.1%	4.3%	—	2.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	8.8%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	3.9%	39.1%	2.8%	—	1.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	2.9%	34.3%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	3.4%	27.9%	2.3%	—	1.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	3.8%	31.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	2.4%	23.5%	2.1%	—	1.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.4%	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.5%	11.4%	1.5%	—	1.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.2%	7.5%	0.0%	—	1.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.9%	12.1%	1.4%	—	1.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.9%	11.9%	1.0%	—	0.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.5%	16.6%	1.2%	0.6%	0.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.3%	16.6%	0.8%	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	17.3%	0.5%	0.6%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	14.7%	0.5%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	15.4%	0.7%	1.1%	0.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	12.0%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	11.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	6.3%	0.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
National Blend	32%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1005
AIFS Single	18%	66.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0328
IFS Ensemble	16%	66.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0253
ICON	11%	64.6°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0123
WeatherNext 2	8%	65.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0066
IFS HRES	4%	61.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0017

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗