KSTL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

43%

16%

12%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 23.0¢Risks 23.05u

ICONNO 77.0¢Risks 76.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.95u · ICON −76.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:23+00:00	46.8%	21.9%	34.0%	11.3%	28.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	46.8%	21.9%	34.0%	11.3%	28.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	46.8%	21.9%	34.0%	11.3%	28.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	46.8%	21.9%	26.3%	11.3%	28.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	46.8%	21.9%	26.3%	11.3%	28.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:28+00:00	46.8%	21.9%	26.3%	11.3%	28.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	38.1%	21.9%	26.3%	9.1%	32.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	38.1%	21.9%	26.3%	9.1%	32.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	38.1%	21.9%	26.3%	9.1%	32.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	38.1%	21.9%	26.3%	9.1%	32.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	38.1%	21.9%	26.3%	9.1%	32.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	38.1%	21.9%	24.0%	9.1%	32.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:55+00:00	38.1%	21.9%	24.0%	9.1%	32.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	38.1%	21.9%	24.0%	9.1%	32.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	42.8%	21.9%	24.0%	9.1%	32.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	42.8%	21.9%	24.0%	9.1%	32.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	42.8%	21.9%	24.0%	9.1%	32.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:18+00:00	42.8%	21.9%	24.0%	9.1%	32.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	42.8%	21.9%	24.0%	9.1%	32.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	42.8%	21.9%	28.0%	9.1%	32.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	42.8%	21.9%	28.0%	9.1%	32.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	42.8%	21.9%	28.0%	9.1%	32.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:56+00:00	38.9%	21.9%	28.0%	12.3%	12.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	38.9%	21.9%	28.0%	12.3%	12.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	38.9%	21.9%	28.0%	12.3%	12.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00	38.9%	21.9%	28.0%	12.3%	12.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:28+00:00	38.9%	21.9%	28.0%	12.3%	12.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	38.9%	21.9%	26.8%	12.3%	12.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	38.9%	22.2%	26.8%	12.3%	12.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:27+00:00	38.9%	22.2%	26.8%	12.3%	12.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	51.7%	22.2%	26.8%	12.3%	12.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	51.7%	22.2%	26.8%	12.3%	12.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:19+00:00	51.7%	21.9%	26.8%	12.3%	12.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	51.7%	21.9%	26.8%	12.3%	12.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	51.7%	21.9%	29.5%	12.3%	12.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:47+00:00	51.7%	21.9%	29.5%	12.3%	12.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	51.7%	21.9%	29.5%	12.3%	12.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	51.7%	21.9%	29.5%	12.3%	12.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	38.9%	21.9%	29.5%	21.2%	16.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:31+00:00	38.9%	21.9%	29.5%	21.2%	16.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	38.9%	21.9%	29.5%	21.2%	16.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	38.9%	21.9%	29.5%	21.2%	16.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	38.9%	21.9%	26.8%	21.2%	16.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	38.9%	21.9%	26.8%	21.2%	16.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	38.9%	21.9%	26.8%	21.2%	16.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	42.2%	21.9%	26.8%	21.2%	16.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	42.2%	21.9%	26.8%	21.2%	16.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	42.2%	21.9%	26.8%	21.2%	16.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	42.2%	21.9%	26.8%	21.2%	16.7%
2026-10-18T04:14:15+00:00	39.3%	19.0%	11.6%	7.9%	2.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	39.3%	19.0%	21.9%	7.9%	2.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	39.3%	19.0%	21.9%	7.9%	2.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	39.3%	19.0%	21.9%	7.9%	2.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	39.3%	19.0%	21.9%	7.9%	2.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:00	39.0%	19.0%	21.9%	8.5%	4.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	39.0%	19.0%	21.9%	8.5%	4.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	39.0%	19.0%	21.9%	8.5%	4.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	39.0%	19.0%	21.9%	8.5%	4.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:51+00:00	39.0%	18.9%	14.3%	8.5%	4.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	39.0%	18.9%	14.3%	8.5%	4.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00	39.0%	18.9%	14.3%	8.5%	4.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	39.0%	18.9%	14.3%	8.5%	4.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	26.3%	19.4%	14.3%	8.5%	4.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00	26.3%	19.4%	14.3%	8.5%	4.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	26.3%	16.1%	14.3%	8.5%	4.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	26.3%	16.1%	14.3%	8.5%	4.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00	26.3%	16.1%	9.6%	8.5%	4.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00	26.3%	16.1%	9.6%	8.5%	4.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	26.3%	16.1%	9.6%	8.5%	4.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	29.7%	16.1%	9.6%	6.6%	3.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	29.7%	16.1%	9.6%	6.6%	3.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	29.7%	16.1%	9.6%	6.6%	3.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	29.7%	16.1%	9.6%	6.6%	3.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	29.7%	16.1%	9.6%	6.6%	3.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	29.7%	16.1%	11.5%	6.6%	3.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	29.7%	16.1%	11.5%	6.6%	3.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	29.7%	16.1%	11.5%	6.6%	3.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	42.9%	16.1%	11.5%	6.6%	3.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	42.9%	16.1%	11.5%	6.6%	3.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	42.9%	16.1%	11.5%	6.6%	3.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	42.9%	16.1%	11.5%	6.6%	3.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	43%	71.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1840
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.1689
IFS Ensemble	16%	68.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0259
WeatherNext 2	12%	69.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0132
IFS HRES	7%	66.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0044
ICON	3%	65.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0010

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗