KSTL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

43%

16%

12%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 23.0¢Risks 23.05u

ICONNO 77.0¢Risks 76.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.95u · ICON −76.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	26.2%	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	0.3%	70.0%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	62.4%	63.1%	0.9%	—	29.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	48.5%	59.4%	34.3%	—	26.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	9.3%	2.0%	26.4%	—	25.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	11.5%	36.7%	5.9%	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	13.4%	41.7%	3.1%	—	5.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	3.6%	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	5.7%	49.1%	3.8%	—	7.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	15.5%	44.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	7.0%	40.9%	4.3%	—	7.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	6.7%	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	5.6%	32.1%	7.2%	—	6.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	2.2%	24.1%	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	2.6%	31.2%	4.2%	—	7.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	5.8%	34.5%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	3.5%	39.2%	2.9%	0.0%	5.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	2.2%	33.6%	0.0%	—	3.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	3.1%	43.0%	1.3%	4.2%	2.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	6.6%	40.5%	1.5%	—	1.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	6.7%	42.6%	2.8%	—	2.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	4.6%	43.6%	1.4%	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	3.7%	46.0%	1.1%	3.2%	1.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	8.1%	33.8%	1.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	15.4%	35.8%	2.1%	10.8%	3.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	15.3%	32.5%	1.7%	—	0.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	10.2%	40.6%	1.2%	9.6%	1.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	21.6%	41.8%	1.9%	—	3.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	43%	71.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1840
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.1689
IFS Ensemble	16%	68.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0259
WeatherNext 2	12%	69.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0132
IFS HRES	7%	66.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0044
ICON	3%	65.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0010

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗